Trade Policy Shifts, Bipartisan Freight Bill, and Recovering Rates

Nick Terry • December 6, 2024

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President-elect Donald Trump announced last week on his Truth social account that he has nominated international trade lawyer and former White House official Jamieson Greer as the U.S. Trade Representative. You will recall that the office gained prominence during President Trump's first term, spearheading the trade war with China. In a bipartisan effort, the U.S. Senate has passed the Transportation Security Screening Modernization Act, which will help simplify how commercial drivers obtain their security clearance. This should boost the industry amid a fluctuating freight economy.


Keep reading to learn more about the news and trends shaping the freight industry.


Trump Administration's Trade Policy Shifts: A Look at Key Appointments and Strategic Focus

The USTR continues to be strategically important to the incoming administration amid Trump’s tariff rhetoric. Trump has stated that Jamieson, a key appointee, will prioritize reducing the U.S. trade deficit, supporting American industries, and expanding export opportunities. 


Greer, another significant nominee, may work under Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick if both receive Senate confirmation. The administrative structure suggests potential changes, with Lutnick potentially overseeing the USTR. Greer's alignment with Trump's trade policies is evident from his testimony to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, where he labeled China's ambitions as a "generational challenge" and criticized its impact on U.S. economic and national security.


Interestingly, Greer diverges slightly from Trump's stance by supporting federal subsidies for industries, suggesting incentives similar to those in the CHIPS and Science Act to boost sectors like pharmaceuticals, robotics, and automotive manufacturing. Greer is also expected to play a pivotal role in renegotiating the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) before its review in 2026, aligning with Trump's focus on leveraging advantages in the automotive sector.


Senate Advances Bipartisan Legislation Streamlining Security Credentials

The U.S. Senate has passed the Transportation Security Screening Modernization Act, a bipartisan effort to simplify the process for commercial drivers to obtain security credentials. The legislation introduced by Senator Roger Wicker seeks to standardize the credentialing process across the freight workforce, reducing bureaucratic inefficiencies and costs. 


This initiative intends to attract more industry drivers, helping alleviate labor shortages and maintain efficient supply chains. Provisions within the bill ensure that high-security standards remain intact. The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) must provide Congress with a progress report six months after the bill's enactment. The bill's sponsors, including Senators Deb Fischer, Angus King, and Jon Tester, emphasized its potential to ease burdens on essential workers while upholding safety.


ATA President Chris Spear highlighted the years of frustration caused by the current credentialing system and hailed the bill as a step toward eliminating wasteful bureaucratic hurdles. The legislation is celebrated as a practical solution that reduces time and cost barriers for truck drivers. Advocates anticipate its implementation will simplify processes, making it easier for drivers to meet credential requirements and contribute to the
transportation industry's operational efficiency.


Freight Rates Show Signs of Recovery as New Market Cycle Emerges

Analysts are observing positive developments in freight rates for 2024, suggesting a potential shift in market dynamics. Data from DAT Freight & Analytics shows consistent growth in dry van spot rates year-over-year since July, signaling the start of a new freight cycle approximately three to four months ago.


Some key observations of this growth include:


  • Spot Rate Growth:
    DAT reports that dry van spot rates were 7% higher in Q4 than in the same period last year.
  • Contract Rate Lag: Contract rates typically lag spot rates by three to four months, but they are now approaching parity, reflecting a tightening market.
  • Discount Trends: Shippers still benefit from an 8.7% discount in the spot market compared to contract rates, although the gap is narrowing.


Despite these encouraging trends, the broader freight market remains challenging.
Carriers have experienced steep declines in operating income during Q3, highlighting the need for increased freight volume to sustain recovery. According to Jason Miller of Michigan State University, the sector remains transitional, with one freight cycle concluding and the next fully taking shape.


Revamped Freight Classification System to Launch in 2025 with Digital Upgrades

The National Motor Freight Traffic Association (NMFTA) has announced July 19, 2025, as the launch date for its updated less-than-truckload (LTL) freight classification system. The new launch date, which was initially planned for May 2025, allows additional time for users to prepare for changes aimed at improving accuracy and reducing costs related to misclassified freight.


Some of the key digital upgrades include:

  • ClassIT+ Platform will replace the current ClassIT system and feature a new application programming interface (API) to simplify freight classification and improve transparency for shippers, carriers, and logistics providers.
  • The updated system will increase accuracy in freight classification, reducing errors and related fees for users.
  • Provide educational resources to gather feedback and assist stakeholders in adapting to the changes.


The NMFTA's broader efforts include maintaining digital standards for the LTL industry and protecting them through cybersecurity initiatives. The association aims to enhance operational efficiency across the shipping sector by streamlining the freight classification.


Trump Selects Lori Chavez-DeRemer as Labor Secretary Nominee

Trump has nominated Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Ore.) as his pick for Secretary of Labor. The rep who is just finishing up her first term but lost her re-election bid. If confirmed, Chavez-DeRemer will focus on expanding apprenticeships, improving wages, and enhancing working conditions.


Her nomination has received support from labor leaders such as Teamsters President Sean O’Brien, who acknowledged her willingness to collaborate and address workers' needs. This announcement is part of Trump’s ongoing cabinet appointments, which include high-profile figures such as Linda McMahon for Education Secretary and Sean Duffy for Transportation Secretary.


Chavez-DeRemer’s nomination underscores the president-elect's approach to balancing worker advocacy with business interests as he forms his administration.


Mexican President Sheinbaum Pushes Back Against Trump's Proposed Tariffs

A potential trade war with Mexico is brewing, as newly appointed Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum strongly criticized Trump's proposal to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico.


Sheinbaum has described the tariffs as threatening shared prosperity
and pointed out that such measures would disrupt trade between the two nations worth hundreds of billions of dollars annually. According to Sheinbaum, American automakers operating in Mexico, including General Motors and Ford, would face significant challenges, arguing the tariffs would fuel inflation and job losses on both sides of the border.


Trump's tariff plans, set to take effect on his first day in office, would effectively dismantle the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), the trade pact that replaced NAFTA and remains in effect until at least 2026. Moreover, Sheinbaum believes that much of the violence and drug-related issues blamed on her country are tied to U.S. demand for narcotics.


U.S. Holiday Spending Set to Rise in 2024 as Inflation Eases

U.S. holiday spending is forecasted to grow by nearly 3% in 2024. Although not much, the growth is heavily supported by declining inflation rates, increased consumer confidence, and early promotional campaigns from retailers — all of which have been effective. All things being equal, Thanksgiving spending is expected to increase by 1.8% year-over-year, Black Friday by 2.8%, and Christmas sales by 3%.


Inflation peaked at 3.5% in March and has averaged 2.5% recently
, its lowest level since 2021. Additionally, wages have consistently outpaced inflation throughout 2023, and the Conference Board's consumer confidence index has risen for two consecutive months. An International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) survey reveals that 70% of respondents feel their financial situation is as good as or better than last year.


Navigating Volatility in the Trucking Market with Entourage Freight Solutions

In this dynamic environment, shippers need reliable freight management services and access to real-time data to stabilize operations and maintain supply chain efficiency. Entourage Freight Solutions offers services to help shippers thrive in an ever-changing logistics landscape. We ensure your shipments are handled precisely and with care by providing critical insights and dependable support. Our key services include:


  • LTL (Less-than-Truckload) Solutions:
    Gain on-demand access to capacity and real-time updates, providing confidence and efficiency in high-stakes logistics.
  • Freight Management: Streamline your inbound and outbound logistics with tools that monitor market capacity, deliver automated notifications, and keep your team informed and organized.
  • Refrigerated Transport: Safely transport goods, from raw materials to finished products, with temperature-controlled expertise to ensure timely delivery and optimal quality.


Request a quote today
and discover how Entourage Freight Solutions can support your freight movement and supply chain needs. Get in touch to learn more about our comprehensive logistics services and how we can help you easily navigate today’s volatile market.


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The freight and logistics market has been navigating a turbulent spring as trade policy swings, supply chain bottlenecks, and shifting consumer behavior ripple through every link of the global network. From record layoffs in retail to volatility in Mexican cross-border shipments, the industry is feeling the heat. And port operators, warehouse managers, and transportation carriers alike are having to adapt to rapid changes in container flows, tariff impacts, and regulatory shifts . We have unpacked the critical developments around the freight world, each reflecting the delicate balance between capacity, demand, and regulation that supply chain leaders must navigate. Continue reading to find out more. Tariff Volatility Fuels Cross-Border Freight Swings U.S. shippers face erratic cross-border freight flows from Mexico as tariff uncertainties continue to disrupt their logistics and supply chain planning. According to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, U.S.-bound truck crossings rose 10.2% in January, fell 6.3% in February, spiked 12% in March, and dropped again by 4.5% in April . Averitt’s Edward Habe attributes this volatility to shippers’ attempts to beat tariff deadlines and navigate unpredictable trade announcements. Although a 25% tariff applies only to goods outside USMCA rules of origin, shippers remain cautious. At Eagle Pass, Texas, beer demand drove a 49.2% year-over-year surge in northbound trucks in Q1, and a considerable part of this was because of Constellation Brands’ Modelo shipments. Meanwhile, Otay Mesa’s volume plummeted 34.9% due to tariffs on Chinese and Southeast Asian imports, which impacted Mexican assembly plants. Key crossings like Laredo and El Paso posted modest declines, while Nogales, Arizona, saw a 4.4% gain. Experts have cautioned that cross-border trade will remain turbulent as long as tariffs fluctuate, making forecasting and operational planning challenging. Chassis Providers Mobilize for Import Surge With U.S. ports bracing for an influx of Chinese imports, America’s largest marine chassis providers — TRAC Intermodal, DCLI, and FlexiVan — are pulling tens of thousands of units from storage , inspecting, and repositioning them to key inland hubs like Chicago, Dallas, and Memphis. TRAC’s Val Noel said, “It could be like a tsunami,” as companies aim to avoid service disruptions. TRAC and DCLI are working closely with BNSF and Union Pacific to anticipate container volumes. FlexiVan, exiting Southern California’s Pool of Pools, is focusing on core partner Ocean Network Express and opened a new chassis pool at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Logistics providers say it takes weeks to inspect and repair stored chassis, a process they have accelerated since learning lessons during the pandemic. Private chassis pools and railroad container management have improved since the COVID-19 pandemic, reducing pressure on public chassis pools. However, with a surge expected this summer, providers are racing to ensure sufficient capacity and avoid bottlenecks that plagued past import booms. Forecast Points to Port Volatility Ahead U.S. retailers are anticipating a temporary surge in port activity this summer, driven by the 90-day U.S.-China tariff pause that slashed rates on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%. According to the National Retail Federation’s Global Port Tracker, this pause has prompted a rush to restock, with volumes rebounding in June to an estimated 2.01 million TEUs, despite being down 6.2% year over year . However, April’s peak at 2.21 million TEUs was short-lived, with May volumes projected to drop to 1.91 million TEUs, the lowest since December 2023. Retailers are also front-loading back-to-school and winter holiday orders, creating an unusual overlap of peak seasons. Yet, forecasts for September and October show sharp declines of 21.8% and 19.8%, respectively. With port labor strikes and tariff policy swings in play, importers face a turbulent second half of 2025, highlighting the challenges of managing global supply chains in an unpredictable trade environment. Tariff Whiplash Sparks Supply Chain Disruptions April saw the largest recorded monthly drop in the U.S. trade deficit, driven by a 16% import plunge after a tariff-driven order surge. The numbers highlight a troubling supply chain crunch. Data shows warehouse inventories are bloated while replenishment orders stall, widening the gap between inventory levels and costs to 26.8 points , the third highest on record. With storage fees still climbing, small businesses are particularly squeezed, says Colorado State’s Zachary Rogers. Freight rates on the China-U.S. route spiked 88%, with container spot rates expected to peak in June before easing. Flexport’s Ryan Petersen warns that stacked tariffs (some containers face 70% total duties) add layers of uncertainty. Smaller logistics providers, representing the “middle mile,” are hit hardest as large players hoard capacity. C.H. Robinson and Flexport offer tech solutions that help with tariff simulation, but July’s potential tariff increase continues to add uncertainty. The bottom line is that small and mid-tier firms bear the brunt of tariff swings, threatening their viability in an increasingly volatile trade environment. LTL Market Faces Soft Demand as Tonnage Declines Tonnage fell in May for multiple carriers . According to initial reports from Old Dominion Freight Line, Saia, and XPO, sluggish demand persisted in the market. LTL tonnage per day and shipments for these firms all declined compared to a year ago. However, the severity of the drops varied, with Old Dominion hit the hardest and Saia receding the least among the group. In contrast, ArcBest’s asset-based segment reported a 6% year-over-year increase in total tons per day for the month. That came as daily shipments were up 7% for May, “reflecting success in capturing new core business,” the company said. Saia bucked the trend, growing LTL weight per shipment by 3% year over year in May. Manufacturing woes and the customer makeup of these carriers are affecting their tonnage and weight changes. Experts say LTL carriers are navigating a low-demand environment by focusing on profitable lanes and contractual freight rather than chasing volume with pricing concessions. Tariff-Driven Trade Shifts Threaten West Coast Ports U.S. ports are navigating a shifting trade landscape as importers look to sidestep tariffs on Chinese goods, driving cargo diversification toward Southeast Asia and India. According to Larry Gross of Gross Transportation Consulting, the U.S. West Coast, which handled 57% of Chinese imports in 2024, is expected to lose the most as trade reroutes. Chinese volumes accounted for 65% of West Coast port traffic, while only 27% and 8% went to the East and Gulf coasts , respectively. Southeast Asian imports already account for 32% of 2024 TEUs, offering some relief, but not enough to offset the decline from China. When shippers pivot to India, the East Coast captures 86% of inbound freight, reinforcing its resilience. Additional shifts in supply chains, such as labor-related cargo diversions and closures of the Red Sea and Suez Canal, further complicate port planning. Gross warns that the West Coast faces a “triple-barreled threat” of lower trade volumes, loss of diverted cargo to the East and Gulf coasts, and the erosion of Chinese import dominance. Retail Layoffs Surge 274% Amid Tariffs, Economic Pessimism U.S. retailers cut nearly 76,000 jobs in the first five months of 2025. A 274% surge over the same period in 2024, driven by tariffs, economic pessimism, and shifting consumer spending patterns. According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, retail ranked second in total job cuts, behind only government losses. May alone saw 11,483 layoffs in retail, up from 7,235 in April , reflecting industrywide struggles. Andrew Challenger, senior vice president at the firm, attributed the trend to tariffs, funding cuts, and economic headwinds that have forced companies to tighten budgets. Major brands like Nike, Walmart, and Procter & Gamble announced significant layoffs in May, with Nike shifting responsibilities within its global tech team, Walmart trimming 1,500 positions in tech and operations, and P&G slashing 7,000 nonmanufacturing jobs, which is about 15% of its workforce. Despite the cuts, overall U.S. employment grew by 139,000 in May, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%. Challenger noted that while some companies continue to hire, they do so cautiously, reflecting a challenging macroeconomic backdrop. Experience Seamless Shipping with Entourage Freight Solutions Entourage Freight Solutions believes in total transparency in the shipping process. That is why we invest in tech solutions that track every shipment extensively, monitor every driver, and extract every bit of efficiency without sacrificing quality. Our state-of-the-art platform utilizes cloud-based GPS tracking to keep you informed, reroutes shipments on the fly to avoid delays, and even responds to real-time market changes to ensure you receive your shipment on time and as soon as possible. Our Services Full Truckload (FTL): When you need a truck all to yourself. Less-Than-Truckload (LTL): Efficient solutions for multi-stop shipments or combining smaller loads to save on costs. Refrigerated Trucking: Keeping your temperature-sensitive products fresh and safe. Cross-Docking: Strategically located facilities in Shelby, Ohio, Cedar Rapids, Iowa, and Romulus, Michigan, for streamlined consolidation, storage, and distribution. Ready to experience a new level of service and control in your freight shipping? Request a quote today to see how Entourage Freight Solutions can help with your freight movement and other supply chain needs.