Trade Policy Shifts As Freight World Braces for Impact

Trade Policy Shifts, Bipartisan Freight Bill, and Recovering Rates

Nick Terry • December 6, 2024

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President-elect Donald Trump announced last week on his Truth social account that he has nominated international trade lawyer and former White House official Jamieson Greer as the U.S. Trade Representative. You will recall that the office gained prominence during President Trump's first term, spearheading the trade war with China. In a bipartisan effort, the U.S. Senate has passed the Transportation Security Screening Modernization Act, which will help simplify how commercial drivers obtain their security clearance. This should boost the industry amid a fluctuating freight economy.

Keep reading to learn more about the news and trends shaping the freight industry.

Trump Administration's Trade Policy Shifts: A Look at Key Appointments and Strategic Focus

The USTR continues to be strategically important to the incoming administration amid Trump’s tariff rhetoric. Trump has stated that Jamieson, a key appointee, will prioritize reducing the U.S. trade deficit, supporting American industries, and expanding export opportunities.

Greer, another significant nominee, may work under Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick if both receive Senate confirmation. The administrative structure suggests potential changes, with Lutnick potentially overseeing the USTR. Greer's alignment with Trump's trade policies is evident from his testimony to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, where he labeled China's ambitions as a "generational challenge" and criticized its impact on U.S. economic and national security.

Interestingly, Greer diverges slightly from Trump's stance by supporting federal subsidies for industries, suggesting incentives similar to those in the CHIPS and Science Act to boost sectors like pharmaceuticals, robotics, and automotive manufacturing. Greer is also expected to play a pivotal role in renegotiating the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) before its review in 2026, aligning with Trump's focus on leveraging advantages in the automotive sector.

Senate Advances Bipartisan Legislation Streamlining Security Credentials

The U.S. Senate has passed the Transportation Security Screening Modernization Act, a bipartisan effort to simplify the process for commercial drivers to obtain security credentials. The legislation introduced by Senator Roger Wicker seeks to standardize the credentialing process across the freight workforce, reducing bureaucratic inefficiencies and costs.

This initiative intends to attract more industry drivers, helping alleviate labor shortages and maintain efficient supply chains. Provisions within the bill ensure that high-security standards remain intact. The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) must provide Congress with a progress report six months after the bill's enactment. The bill's sponsors, including Senators Deb Fischer, Angus King, and Jon Tester, emphasized its potential to ease burdens on essential workers while upholding safety.

ATA President Chris Spear highlighted the years of frustration caused by the current credentialing system and hailed the bill as a step toward eliminating wasteful bureaucratic hurdles. The legislation is celebrated as a practical solution that reduces time and cost barriers for truck drivers. Advocates anticipate its implementation will simplify processes, making it easier for drivers to meet credential requirements and contribute to the transportation industry's operational efficiency.

Freight Rates Show Signs of Recovery as New Market Cycle Emerges

Analysts are observing positive developments in freight rates for 2024, suggesting a potential shift in market dynamics. Data from DAT Freight & Analytics shows consistent growth in dry van spot rates year-over-year since July, signaling the start of a new freight cycle approximately three to four months ago.

Some key observations of this growth include:

Spot Rate Growth: DAT reports that dry van spot rates were 7% higher in Q4 than in the same period last year.
Contract Rate Lag: Contract rates typically lag spot rates by three to four months, but they are now approaching parity, reflecting a tightening market.
Discount Trends: Shippers still benefit from an 8.7% discount in the spot market compared to contract rates, although the gap is narrowing.

Despite these encouraging trends, the broader freight market remains challenging. Carriers have experienced steep declines in operating income during Q3, highlighting the need for increased freight volume to sustain recovery. According to Jason Miller of Michigan State University, the sector remains transitional, with one freight cycle concluding and the next fully taking shape.

Revamped Freight Classification System to Launch in 2025 with Digital Upgrades

The National Motor Freight Traffic Association (NMFTA) has announced July 19, 2025, as the launch date for its updated less-than-truckload (LTL) freight classification system. The new launch date, which was initially planned for May 2025, allows additional time for users to prepare for changes aimed at improving accuracy and reducing costs related to misclassified freight.

Some of the key digital upgrades include:

ClassIT+ Platform will replace the current ClassIT system and feature a new application programming interface (API) to simplify freight classification and improve transparency for shippers, carriers, and logistics providers.
The updated system will increase accuracy in freight classification, reducing errors and related fees for users.
Provide educational resources to gather feedback and assist stakeholders in adapting to the changes.

The NMFTA's broader efforts include maintaining digital standards for the LTL industry and protecting them through cybersecurity initiatives. The association aims to enhance operational efficiency across the shipping sector by streamlining the freight classification.

Trump Selects Lori Chavez-DeRemer as Labor Secretary Nominee

Trump has nominated Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Ore.) as his pick for Secretary of Labor. The rep who is just finishing up her first term but lost her re-election bid. If confirmed, Chavez-DeRemer will focus on expanding apprenticeships, improving wages, and enhancing working conditions.

Her nomination has received support from labor leaders such as Teamsters President Sean O’Brien, who acknowledged her willingness to collaborate and address workers' needs. This announcement is part of Trump’s ongoing cabinet appointments, which include high-profile figures such as Linda McMahon for Education Secretary and Sean Duffy for Transportation Secretary.

Chavez-DeRemer’s nomination underscores the president-elect's approach to balancing worker advocacy with business interests as he forms his administration.

Mexican President Sheinbaum Pushes Back Against Trump's Proposed Tariffs

A potential trade war with Mexico is brewing, as newly appointed Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum strongly criticized Trump's proposal to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico.

Sheinbaum has described the tariffs as threatening shared prosperity and pointed out that such measures would disrupt trade between the two nations worth hundreds of billions of dollars annually. According to Sheinbaum, American automakers operating in Mexico, including General Motors and Ford, would face significant challenges, arguing the tariffs would fuel inflation and job losses on both sides of the border.

Trump's tariff plans, set to take effect on his first day in office, would effectively dismantle the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), the trade pact that replaced NAFTA and remains in effect until at least 2026. Moreover, Sheinbaum believes that much of the violence and drug-related issues blamed on her country are tied to U.S. demand for narcotics.

U.S. Holiday Spending Set to Rise in 2024 as Inflation Eases

U.S. holiday spending is forecasted to grow by nearly 3% in 2024. Although not much, the growth is heavily supported by declining inflation rates, increased consumer confidence, and early promotional campaigns from retailers — all of which have been effective. All things being equal, Thanksgiving spending is expected to increase by 1.8% year-over-year, Black Friday by 2.8%, and Christmas sales by 3%.

Inflation peaked at 3.5% in March and has averaged 2.5% recently, its lowest level since 2021. Additionally, wages have consistently outpaced inflation throughout 2023, and the Conference Board's consumer confidence index has risen for two consecutive months. An International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) survey reveals that 70% of respondents feel their financial situation is as good as or better than last year.

Navigating Volatility in the Trucking Market with Entourage Freight Solutions

In this dynamic environment, shippers need reliable freight management services and access to real-time data to stabilize operations and maintain supply chain efficiency. Entourage Freight Solutions offers services to help shippers thrive in an ever-changing logistics landscape. We ensure your shipments are handled precisely and with care by providing critical insights and dependable support. Our key services include:

LTL (Less-than-Truckload) Solutions: Gain on-demand access to capacity and real-time updates, providing confidence and efficiency in high-stakes logistics.
Freight Management: Streamline your inbound and outbound logistics with tools that monitor market capacity, deliver automated notifications, and keep your team informed and organized.
Refrigerated Transport: Safely transport goods, from raw materials to finished products, with temperature-controlled expertise to ensure timely delivery and optimal quality.

Request a quote today and discover how Entourage Freight Solutions can support your freight movement and supply chain needs. Get in touch to learn more about our comprehensive logistics services and how we can help you easily navigate today’s volatile market.

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Tariffs, Trade Policy, and the Great Freight Fallout

By Nick Terry • April 28, 2025

In 2025, trade policy is no longer something that the freight industry can leave on the back burner. Trade policy today is shaping strategy at every level. From tariff escalations and retaliatory duties to sweeping regulatory changes and targeted maritime fees, supply chain leaders are navigating a freight market in which unpredictability is the only constant. Sourcing decisions are shifting, pricing dynamics are unstable, and long-standing operational models are being rewritten in real time. This edition brings together key stories highlighting the growing pressure across logistics channels. Each development points to an industry moving fast, and often reactively, to keep pace with volatile policy decisions. Tariffs Stall US Freight Recovery as Shippers Pause Orders The recent move by the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) to impose entrance fees on Chinese-built ships calling U.S. ports has only added to the confusion and uncertainty gripping global supply chains and freight operations. Shippers are pausing plans and slashing orders, with truckload volumes, containerized imports, and manufacturing output all showing signs of contraction. Ocean freight spot rates have collapsed: Asia-U.S. West Coast rates have fallen 61% since January to $2,050 per FEU, while East Coast rates have dropped 53.7% to $3,100 per FEU . Blank sailings are rising, with vessels leaving Asia half-empty. Amazon and Five Below are among the major retailers reducing orders from Asia. Container imports jumped 15.3% in 2024, but forecasts now predict a 20-27% decline through the summer. Exporters, particularly agriculture and forestry suppliers, are also squeezed, facing 125% retaliatory tariffs from China. Truckload and intermodal rates remain stagnant, while U.S. factory output fell sharply in March. US Apparel Importers Brace for Long-Term Volume Declines According to Trade Partnership Worldwide, a 124.1% tariff on Chinese clothing and footwear is expected to reduce U.S. apparel imports by 1.6% annually . China still accounts for 41.7% of apparel shipments, leaving limited flexibility for diversion. The American Apparel and Footwear Association (AAFA) is warning of price hikes and mounting infrastructure stress as sourcing pivots toward Vietnam, India, and Indonesia. A looming May 2 deadline for de minimis exemptions could further complicate flows and delay deliveries. Even with a temporary 90-day pause in reciprocal tariffs, the policy uncertainty already affects long-term planning. AAFA CEO Steve Lamar calls the shifting policies “chaotic,” and warned that high tariff pressure will hit both importers and U.S. manufacturers reliant on Chinese components. Port and rail capacity limitations at larger gateways are adding to concerns. Retailers now face rising costs, shrinking margins, and operational delays — all while consumer demand continues to shift rapidly. Freight Pricing Gains Lose Momentum According to the TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index, Q1 truckload rates rose 5.9% above the 2018 baseline, but are expected to decline slightly in Q2. Shippers are responding to tariff threats with aggressive front-loading and shorter-haul routes, driving per-shipment costs to three-year lows. LTL carriers remain focused on profitable lanes and high-quality freight rather than chasing volume. The index forecasts a 0.7% year-over-year increase in LTL rate per pound for Q2 , despite sustained demand softness and macro uncertainty. A key driver behind the softening spot market conditions is a shift to shorter hauls and regionalized distribution, pushing per-shipment costs to their lowest point in more than three years. This trend reflects how retailers and manufacturers are repositioning inventory in response to tariff volatility, as NRF’s Jonathan Gold and DAT analyst Dean Croke noted. Meanwhile, the LTL sector is seeing a 4% rise in fuel surcharges, offsetting lower weights and shorter hauls. With the freight market still under pressure after 26 months of contraction, optimism remains subdued as we enter the midyear period. US Truckload Freight Spot Rates Continue to Fluctuate National benchmark rates have experienced a decline across all categories. As of April 18, dry van decreased by 4 cents to $1.62, reefer by 2 cents to $1.88 , and flatbed by 3 cents to $2.16. This marked the first overall decrease since late January, signaling potential shifts in market dynamics. These changes can be attributed to factors such as tariff uncertainties and tighter capacity, especially affecting the flatbed market. Flatbed rates rely heavily on manufacturing activity in the country, which has been particularly hard-hit by the ongoing trade war with China, and to some extent, with the rest of the world. US Finalizes Tiered Fee Plan Targeting Chinese Ships The U.S. is moving forward with a revised plan to levy voyage-based fees on Chinese-owned and Chinese-built ships calling at American ports. The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) announced the measure as part of a broader Trump administration effort to counter China’s dominance in shipbuilding and logistics while reigniting domestic ship construction and port infrastructure investment. Starting in six months, Chinese operators will be charged $50 per net ton, with an annual increase of $30 for three years . Non-Chinese carriers using Chinese-built vessels will face lower rates, beginning at $18 per ton or $120 per container, with annual increases. The USTR capped fee applications at five voyages per vessel annually, scaling back its original, more punitive per-port-call proposal after intense industry pushback. The fees are tied to findings from a USTR investigation, which concluded that China’s shipbuilding dominance — producing 29% of global fleet capacity and 70% of all container ships on order — stemmed from unfair trade practices. Exemptions apply to ships arriving empty, those in the Great Lakes or U.S. territories, and some bulk exports. LNG vessel transport restrictions will phase in over 22 years to support U.S. production. China’s largest container carrier, Cosco Shipping Lines, has sharply criticized the USTR’s plan. In a strongly worded statement, Cosco labeled the move as “discriminatory,” and warned it would disrupt global industrial and supply chain stability. Cosco denied allegations from that USTR investigation that claimed China manipulated its shipping and shipbuilding sectors to gain an unfair advantage. The carrier said it upholds “integrity, transparency, and compliance” in global competition and remains committed to ensuring the resilience of international trade. Walmart Investing $6B in Mexico, Central America Store Expansion Walmart of Mexico and Central America will invest $6 billion to open new stores across the region , reinforcing its long-term commitment to growth in Latin America. The expansion will include Bodega Aurrera, Walmart Supercenters, Sam’s Club, and Walmart Express formats, building on a robust network of 3,200 stores across all 32 Mexican states. This latest move echoes Walmart’s earlier $1.3 billion investment in 2016 for regional distribution and operational upgrades. The retailer entered the Mexican market in 1991 with a Sam’s Club in Mexico City. In a statement, Walmart said the new expansion reflects confidence in the region’s economic potential and consumer demand. Globally, Walmart continues to invest aggressively in infrastructure and store development. The company has pledged about $4.5 billion for its Canadian operations and $1.3 billion in Chile to build 70 new stores and a distribution center. In the U.S., Walmart is executing a five-year plan to build or convert more than 150 stores while modernizing 650 existing locations under its “Store of the Future” initiative. Experience Seamless Shipping with Entourage Freight Solutions Entourage Freight Solutions believes in total transparency in the shipping process. That is why we invest in tech solutions that track every shipment extensively, monitor every driver, and extract every bit of efficiency without sacrificing quality. Our state-of-the-art platform utilizes cloud-based GPS tracking to keep you informed, reroutes shipments on the fly to avoid delays, and even responds to real-time market changes to ensure you receive your shipment on time and as soon as possible. Our Services Full Truck Load (FTL): When you need a truck all to yourself. Less-Than-Truckload (LTL): Efficient solutions for multi-stop shipments or combining smaller loads to save on costs. Refrigerated Trucking: Keeping your temperature-sensitive products fresh and safe. Cross-Docking: Strategically located facilities in Shelby, Ohio, Cedar Rapids, Iowa, and Romulus, Michigan, for streamlined consolidation, storage, and distribution. Ready to experience a new level of service and control in your freight shipping? Request a quote today to see how Entourage Freight Solutions can help with your freight movement and other supply chain needs.