The freight industry kicked off 2026 with a tangle of signals: rising rates in some corners, stubborn job losses in others, and a regulatory fog thick enough to cloud any forecasts. For starters, experts are still divided on the impact of the unexpected surge in U.S truckload rates in December. Is it a result of winter volatility or the start of a long-awaited rebound? 

Meanwhile, despite slack demand, the less-than-truckload (LTL) sector flexed unusual pricing power, pushing per-pound rates to record highs. But that strength isn’t mirrored across the labor market as trucking and warehouse job numbers continue to fall. And then there is the landmark Supreme Court ruling on the legality of Trump-era tariffs, which could release billions in refunds and spark a new wave of import activity. 

This month’s newsletter unpacks pivotal developments shaping the road ahead. Continue reading to find out more.

Truckload Surge in December Offers No Clear Signal for 2026 Rates

Despite a 19 cents-per-mile jump in U.S. truckload spot rates in December, reaching an average of $2.46 per mile on 250-mile-plus lanes, the market remains volatile. David Spencer of Arrive Logistics warned that the increase was likely temporary, while Michigan State’s Jason Miller highlighted February as the true bellwether month. A sustained rate climb beyond January could shift pricing power to carriers, but economic indicators remain mixed.

Manufacturing activity is shaky, with the S&P Global PMI at 51.8, but production outpacing new orders by the widest gap since 2008-09.

LTL Rates Set Record Highs as Carriers Hold Firm; Truckload Shows Signs of Stabilization

LTL rates surged to new highs in Q4 2025, despite muted demand. According to the TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index, the LTL rate per pound stood at 67.9% above its January 2018 baseline and up 100 basis points from Q3 and 490 bps year over year. But analysts expect a slight dip to 66.1% in Q1 2026, which would still mark nine consecutive quarters of year-over-year growth.

Meanwhile, the truckload segment showed “tentative signs of recovery,” with its rate-per-mile index climbing 160 bps sequentially to 7.6% above the 2018 baseline. Although costs dropped 8.6% and miles declined 10%, the data points to stabilization rather than strong growth. 

CBP Moves to Digital Refunds as Tariff Ruling Looms Over $133 Billion in Levies

U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) will begin issuing tariff refunds exclusively through electronic payments starting February 6. The organization is focusing on eliminating paper checks to reduce delays, fraud, and costs. But the shift coincides with the anticipation of a U.S. Supreme Court ruling on the legality of Trump-era tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). If overturned, the decision could unlock tens of billions in refunds. 

However, trade experts caution that the refund process may take years. Cindy Allen, a former CBP official, said companies would need to proactively file refund claims, which the CBP must audit.

Carrier Count Holds Steady in 2025 Despite Pressure on Capacity and Driver Policies

Contrary to expectations, 2025 did not bring a major shakeout in the for-hire trucking sector. Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) data shows that carrier exits nearly equaled new grants and reinstatements, keeping the total carrier count mostly unchanged. The market still retains 86,000 more carriers than before the pandemic, which is about 33% higher, according to Avery Vise of FTR Transportation Intelligence. While capacity contracted modestly in Q4, the impact on rates was negligible.

Trucking Dive’s analysis showed that December revocations, ranging from 6,400 to 8,600 depending on the filters, may have been distorted by federal processing patterns. Apparently, English Language Proficiency (ELP) violations triggered only 184 revocations that month, indicating a limited impact of the enforcement.

Trucking Jobs Stagnate at Post-Pandemic Low While Warehouse Cuts Accelerate

U.S. truck transportation employment plateaued at 1,513,300 jobs in both November and December 2025. This was the lowest level since July 2021. And the stagnation has been downward over the last 16 of the last 24 months, with a net loss of 21,300 jobs since December 2023. While monthly fluctuations have been minor, they reflect persistent softness in the job market. 

March 2025 saw an 8,000-job gain, offset by an equivalent drop in September. Meanwhile, warehouse employment continued its sharp decline, losing 7,200 jobs in January and totaling a six-month drop of 38,200 positions. The sector is now 151,600 jobs below its March 2022 peak. In contrast, rail transportation jobs rose by 700 to 151,000, the highest monthly gain since late 2024.

Partner With Entourage Freight Solutions for Better Logistics

Choosing to wait for stability may leave you waiting forever, and attempting to do it yourself requires millions of dollars in capital. However, by working with a comprehensive 3PL provider like Entourage Freight Solutions, you can gain the capabilities needed to navigate the chaos with ease. All you need to do is plug into our network and access the adaptive supply chain immediately. Contact us today.