Trucking executives believe the long-running rate slump is ending. However, recovery appears to be driven more by a decline in carrier supply than by a broad demand surge. Retailers are moving imports ahead of tariff and fuel pressures, leading to an early peak season that could fade quickly. Meanwhile, transportation unemployment has fallen below the national rate, although trucking and warehousing employment remains softer than a year ago. 

Drivers are changing their behavior too, moving trucks a bit more slowly to protect margins amid high diesel prices. The delay may be small, but it places greater emphasis on planning, dock discipline, and ETA accuracy. Then there’s Amazon. Its expanded LTL service is not upending the market overnight, but it puts another big, well-capitalized player in freight lanes that are already under stress. 

Continue reading to find out the latest in the freight world.

Trucking Rates Rise as Carrier Supply Tightens   

U.S. trucking executives said the nearly four-year freight downturn appears to be ending as rates rise after low earnings, as higher operating costs and tighter driver rules forced many carriers out of the market. The Logistics Managers’ Index called it the hottest transportation market in more than four years, with transportation prices rising in May at the fastest clip in the report’s 10-year history. 

Excluding fuel surcharges, dry van spot rates were up about 52% year over year for the week ended June 5. The rebound is supply-driven. But some parts of the market are being lifted by manufacturing activity and data center demand, particularly flatbed trucking.

Retailers Pull Peak Season Forward 

U.S. retailers now expect a shorter and earlier peak shipping season, with June imports projected to reach 2.25 million TEUs, up from the previous estimate of 2.13 million TEUs and 14.3% higher than last year. The rush is connected to retailers moving up fall and holiday merchandise before new tariffs and possible fuel cost increases hit supply chains. 

The import surge is likely to extend into July, then fade as inflation and consumer uncertainty weigh on demand, said Ben Hackett of Hackett Associates. NRF’s Jonathan Gold also cautioned that the longer import pattern points to lower levels. The charts reinforce the split picture: China-to-U.S. bookings hit a 2026 peak, West Coast rates neared $5,000 per FEU, and East Coast rates edged toward $6,100 per FEU.

Transportation Jobless Rate Falls   

According to BTS data based on BLS figures, U.S. transportation unemployment fell to 3.6% in May 2026, down from 4.4% in May 2025, and was below the national non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of 4.1%. The gap suggests transportation labor remains tighter than the broader economy, even with weak payroll growth. 

Transportation and warehousing employment, seasonally adjusted, was essentially flat from April at 6.6 million jobs but down 0.9% from May 2025. Employment in truck transportation fell to 1.46 million, down 0.3% from April and 1.5% lower than a year ago. Warehousing rose a little from month to month, up 0.3% to 1.84 million jobs, but was still down 1.8% from last year. 

Fuel Pressure Tests Freight Planning

With diesel prices climbing, truck drivers seem to be easing off the gas, but experts say the impact on delivery should be minimal for most shippers. Diesel prices shot up to $5.35 a gallon in April from $3.48 in January. Commercial trucks were driving 4% slower in late April than at the start of 2026, according to INRIX data.

The bigger issue is schedule reliability because missed dock appointments matter more than slow trucks. Domestic trucking is only one part of import lead times. Carriers with route cushions are doing better, but Overhaul’s David Warrick warned that higher fuel costs, tighter capacity, and rising rates are exposing the fragility of freight planning.

Amazon Pushes LTL Beyond Its Own Network 

Amazon is expanding its less-than-truckload service to out-of-town destinations, such as third-party warehouses, distribution centers, retail stores, and other business locations. The move is part of Amazon Supply Chain Services, which recently opened its freight, fulfillment, distribution, and parcel network to sellers outside Amazon. Shippers can move between one and six pallets or 150 and 15,000 pounds, which has analysts cautious about the scale.

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