Rate indexes are rising again as diesel prices continue to skyrocket and truckload tightens. A major investigation into chameleon carriers shows how weak oversight can let dangerous businesses return to the market under new names. CBP’s long-awaited tariff refund portal could result in a significant refund for importers, but it could also mean a lot of back-end work. Finally, FMCSA data shows that the number of carriers is rising again, despite payroll data showing that the recovery remains uneven.

Continue reading for the latest updates across the freight world.

Freight Rates Turn Sharply Higher   

The first quarter could be a real turning point for freight prices. AFS Logistics and TD Cowen said that truckload and less-than-truckload indexes rose because of diesel prices and insufficient truckload capacity. The rate-per-pound index for LTL was 66.9% above the January 2018 baseline, which was 300 basis points higher than a year earlier. Second-quarter data is expected to reach a new high of 68.4% above baseline. 

The weight of shipments also rose 3.8% from the fourth quarter, marking the first increase in two years. This could mean that industrial demand is getting stronger. Meanwhile, the rate-per-mile index hit a 13-quarter high, and the cost per shipment for linehaul went up 10.2%.

Diesel Shock, Tight Capacity Push Trucking Into Harder Market

The March Logistics Managers’ Index showed that the freight market has become harder, especially for shippers. At 65.7, that’s the highest level since May 2022. Meanwhile, transportation prices shot up to 89.4 as the Strait of Hormuz closure sent diesel sharply higher, with national prices at $5.40 per gallon and California at a record $7.60. At the same time, freight capacity fell to 39.2, leaving a 50.2-point gap relative to prices. This was the biggest positive inversion since November 2021. 

Small shippers seem to be more at risk, and carriers are still feeling the effects of fuel on their margins, even though they are getting their best rates in four years.

Chameleon Carriers Get National Scrutiny   

A CBS “60 Minutes” investigation into Super Ego Holding, a network with ties to both Serbia and the U.S., has brought one of trucking’s darkest loopholes into the spotlight. Rob Carpenter, a trucking safety expert, helped CBS show how unsafe fleets can shut down, start up again under new names, and get back on the road with clean records. 

Super Ego-connected carriers had almost 15,000 safety violations and 500 crashes in the last two years, according to data from the Department of Transportation. Carpenter thinks that between 10% and 20% of the 700,000 trucking companies in the U.S. may be somewhere on the chameleon carrier spectrum. Risk data shows that these drivers are four times more likely to crash. 

CBP Tariff Refund Portal Open for Electronic Filings

The new CBP tariff refund portal became available for the electronic filing of about $127 billion in IEEPA tariff refunds on April 20, and 82% of eligible entries were already set up to accept electronic payments, which the agency made mandatory in February. 

The Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries (CAPE) portal was designed to streamline the submission and processing of refunds for duties imposed until the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).

Carrier Counts Rise Again, But Labor Picture Still Looks Soft

The first quarter brought a small but notable shift in trucking capacity. FMCSA data shows a net increase in carriers with operating authority. This means that new grants and reinstatements outnumbered revocations.This was the first time that kind of increase had happened since Q2 2025, and before that, Q3 2022. Revocations also fell to their lowest level in a quarter since Q4 2021. 

Meanwhile, Avery Vise from FTR said that trucking jobs are still weak, with payrolls at their lowest level since September 2020 and, outside of the pandemic, their lowest level since November 2017. Long-distance truckload payrolls were especially low, falling to 496,500 in January.

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