Supply chains in the U.S. are grappling with a complex mix of tariff pressures, declining freight volumes, and structural shifts in global sourcing. Export declines, container rate volatility, and the end of key trade exemptions are testing resilience across logistics networks. West Coast ports face significant volume drops, while e-commerce players scramble to overhaul fulfillment models. 

Meanwhile, heavy-haul operators warn of infrastructure gaps, and carriers struggle to maintain stable rates despite reduced demand. Retailers and manufacturers are front-loading cargo and diversifying supply chains where possible, but the broader freight economy continues to feel the weight of policy-driven disruption. This bimonthly newsletter edition looks at critical developments shaping how goods move across the U.S. and global markets as companies navigate an increasingly unpredictable trade landscape.

Exports, Imports Plunge as Tariffs Hit Ag, Manufacturing Hard

A nationwide export slump that has continued since the start of 2025 continues to deepen as tariffs and trade wars disrupt U.S. trade, hitting agriculture hard. Ports like Portland and Tacoma report that export volume has dropped to 51%, while imports plunged 43% week over week through April 28. Major agricultural exports such as soybeans, corn, and beef are among the hardest hit so far.

Retailers across various industries are also facing a potential inventory shortage as freight experts project a 15% to 20% decline in imports sooner rather than later. Ocean carriers like Matson have already reported a 30% loss in their volumes and are increasingly uncertain when conditions will improve. Despite some manufacturers shifting sourcing to Vietnam, Thailand, and other countries, Michigan State’s Jason Miller warns that no alternatives can fully offset the 30-60% volume gap created by the tariff fallout.

Shrinking China Cargo Share Signals US Employment Risks

China’s share of U.S. port imports has declined sharply due to tariffs. In 2024, China accounted for 51% of Los Angeles cargo and 61% at Long Beach, and key retail categories, including toys, furniture, plastics, and electronics, depended heavily on Chinese imports.

Following expert warnings that sourcing shifts to Southeast Asia cannot fully compensate for the 30-60% volume loss, there is enough reason for local employment around the most affected ports to be worried, as fewer imports equal fewer drayage drivers and warehouse workers, coupled with knock-on effects from less activity in general.

E-Commerce Sellers Scramble as De Minimis Exemption Ends 

On May 2, the U.S. ended the de minimis exemption for goods from China and Hong Kong, subjecting shipments under $800 to a 145% tariff. In response to the move, Shein and Temu raised prices by 40% to 100%. The exemption facilitated 1.36 billion shipments in 2024. However, with the exemption scrapped, more than 80% of e-commerce executives say the change threatens their business viability. 

Brands like Kuru Footwear and ThirdLove are shifting inventory into U.S. warehouses or sourcing from Vietnam to limit tariff exposure. Smaller retailers face the toughest challenges as they restructure fulfillment models or pass costs to consumers. Many expect additional policy tightening that could further alter cross-border shipping practices.

Heavy Loads at Risk as Freight Network Mapping Stalls

The long-anticipated National Multimodal Freight Network (NMFN), aimed at mapping critical U.S. freight corridors, faces uncertainty under the Trump administration. The draft network covers 175,000 miles of transport routes and 205 ports and airports, but has stalled due to political changes.

Oversized/overweight (OS/OW) carriers fear that vital infrastructure may be neglected without official designation. Though most states now offer automated permitting systems, challenges like rest area shortages and infrastructure unsuitable for large cargo remain. The Specialized Carriers & Rigging Association (SC&RA) urges federal-state coordination to maintain heavy-haul corridors essential for industrial projects. Delays in finalizing the NMFN may impact long-term logistics planning and investment.

West Coast Ports Brace for Sharp Import Declines 

Ports including Los Angeles, Long Beach, and the Northwest Seaport Alliance anticipate a 35% to 38% decline in import volumes through June, driven by 59 blank sailings. Experts believe the impact could eliminate anywhere from 65,000 to 71,000 TEUs of weekly freight volumes in Southern California. 

Oakland and Seattle-Tacoma also are seeing rising blank sailings, while Vancouver remains largely unaffected due to its focus on Canadian trade. The ILWU criticized the tariffs, citing risks to supply chain employment. Terminal operators are reducing gate hours in response to falling volumes. Industry leaders expect further disruption if tariffs remain in place, potentially impacting West Coast port employment and capacity utilization.

Trump Holds Firm on Canadian Tariffs   

President Trump confirmed that no immediate tariff relief is forthcoming for Canada, despite recent talks with Prime Minister Mark Carney. Canada faces 25% tariffs on general imports, 10% on energy and potash, and additional duties on auto parts, steel, and aluminum. Some goods under USMCA remain exempt.

Carney emphasized Canada’s trade integration with the U.S., noting that 50% of Canadian-assembled cars contain U.S. parts. Trump maintained that tariffs are essential to protect U.S. manufacturing, especially the automotive sector. As automakers navigate rising costs and supply chain challenges, both nations continue discussing potential trade agreement revisions, though no policy changes are imminent.

Asia-US Ocean Freight Rates Hold Steady   

Container spot rates from Asia to the U.S. West and East coasts have held flat since mid-April at $2,790 and $3,830 per FEU, respectively, according to Xeneta. Rates are down 52% and 44% year to date, despite an April 1 spike. More than 40 blank sailings to the West Coast and 20 to the East Coast have offset reduced demand driven by 145% tariffs.

Trans-Pacific capacity cuts are expected to reach 28% for the West Coast and 42% for the East Coast. Shippers front-loaded cargo before tariff hikes, temporarily boosting Q1 volumes. Xeneta’s Peter Sand cautioned that the rate plateau is likely temporary unless demand rebounds or tariffs ease, with further declines possible in the second half of 2025.

Entourage Freight Solutions: Calm Shipping Amid the Tariff and Trade Storm

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