Freight Front-Loading, Reverse Logistics, and a Shrinking Trucking Pool

Nick Terry • June 27, 2025

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The second half of 2025 is expected to bring significant shifts in freight routes, regulations, and border infrastructure. In May, dry van and reefer volumes rose slightly as shippers rushed to move goods ahead of expected tariffs. But experts say the bump won’t last.


At the same time, rising costs and trade uncertainty are forcing more companies to focus on reverse logistics — finding new value in returned goods while dodging fresh tariff hits. Adding pressure, the government’s tougher rules on English proficiency are cutting into the already short supply of truck drivers.


Big carriers like Schneider and J.B. Hunt are warning about tighter capacity, even as freight rates stay flat due to weak demand and surplus inventory.
A brief spike in imports on the West Coast, driven by the end of tariff relief, has given way to concerns about a weak peak season. 


Still, long-term investments at the U.S.-Mexico border continue, including bold new projects like the Green Corridors operating on raised tracks. This edition breaks down the data behind shifting freight capacity, rates, and infrastructure upgrades.


Freight Ticks Up in May but Summer Looks Soft


Spot rates and volumes for dry van and reefer freight inched up in May as shippers tried to get ahead of summer slowdowns and possible tariffs, according to DAT Freight & Analytics. Dry van rose 3%, and reefer climbed 5%. But the boost may be short-lived


“It was a bumpy month,” said Ken Adamo, DAT’s chief analyst. “Roadcheck, Memorial Day, and tariff moves all played a part.” Dean Croke at DAT iQ said peak-season shipping was pulled forward to spring. Imports have been elevated since last fall, which could flatten the rest of the year. “There are still too many trucks for the loads available,” he noted. 


That means tighter margins and more strain across the industry. Circle Logistics echoed the concern, but remains hopeful that consistent flows along key lanes could offer some relief. The lack of a coherent trade policy, however, leaves the freight outlook unstable as we move into the second half of 2025.


Reverse Logistics Gains Ground as Tariffs Bite


Returns are becoming a critical tool for retailers squeezed by high tariffs and rising costs. The U.S. reverse logistics market reached $150 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow at a rate of 6%-8% annually, according to Alix Partners. By processing returns more efficiently, retailers can resell goods, avoid purchasing new inventory, and safeguard their profits.


“Returns help cut costs —
especially now that tariffs make new goods pricier,” said Casey Chroust, COO of Optoro. With return handling often costing 30% of the item’s price, efficiency matters. Chroust added that 63% of retailers are selling secondhand goods, and more than 75% of consumers are open to buying them.


Luxury reseller Stork saw a 74% increase in pre-owned stock last quarter and reduced intake time from months to days, thanks to the help of AI tools. For these companies, returns aren’t just about sustainability — they’re a growing revenue stream. Total U.S. returns were expected to reach $890 billion last year, and logistics giants such as DHL, UPS, and FedEx are expanding their reverse logistics operations.


English Rules Shrink Driver Pool, Push Rates Up


The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) is cracking down on English language rules for truck drivers. As of June 25, drivers who don’t meet federal standards can be pulled off the road immediately. FreightWaves says about 10% of drivers may be affected.


Currently, the market appears stable, with only 6% of loads being rejected, according to SONAR. But that may change fast. With fewer qualified drivers, rejection rates could rise. That would shift pricing power to carriers and drive rates higher. The National Truckload Index, now at $2.27 per mile, is expected to climb.


Fleet operators are encouraged to implement English language training programs to protect the viability of their workforce and ensure regulatory compliance. Shippers, meanwhile, should brace for elevated costs and tighter capacity through the second half of 2025. With compliance costs rising and driver pools tightening, market dynamics are shifting fast under FMCSA’s new emphasis on language standards.


Carriers Brace for Impact From New Regulations


Leaders at Schneider and J.B. Hunt predict that truckload capacity will shrink in late 2025, not because demand is growing but because new regulations are reducing supply. At a Wells Fargo conference, both cited tougher enforcement of English standards and possible crackdowns on illegal trucking under B-1 visas.


J.B. Hunt COO Nicholas Hobbs expects growth as excess trucks leave the market. Schneider CEO Mark Rourke said domestic demand is “steady, if unspectacular,” but warned that English rule enforcement, now triggering automatic shutdowns, is having an overlooked regional impact.


In 2024, 9,510 violations were cited, but only six drivers were sidelined
. That number will likely surge as a result of the June 25 rule change. Hobbs also noted that scrutiny of cabotage when foreign drivers haul U.S. freight is growing and could further limit cheap labor options. 


For carriers, the shakeout may help end a long slump.


Freight Demand Slips and Rates Stumble


Fresh data shows freight demand weakening. The Cass Freight Index and Producer Price Index (PPI) both dipped in May. Cass reported a 0.4% drop in shipments from April and a 4% year-over-year decline, worse than April’s 3.6% fall. Pre-tariff stocking is fading, and destocking has begun.


Truckload pricing rose 0.6% from the same period last year but fell 0.8% from April
. Since February, rates have decreased by 1.5%. The Journal of Commerce reported May’s average all-in rate was $2.18 per mile, 8% below January and just under May 2024’s rate.


The long-haul PPI stayed flat at 177.3 in May, up only 3% from last year. The LTL PPI also slipped after record highs. June volumes are expected to fall another 2% year over year. Carriers remain cautious, citing weak consumer demand and uncertainty related to tariffs.


West Coast Import Rush Masks Soft Peak Season


A short-lived import surge is hitting West Coast ports as shippers rush to take advantage of expiring tariff breaks. The ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach anticipate their busiest weeks since early 2025, with nearly 140,000 containers forecast for late June and early July. The jump comes ahead of July 9 and August 14 tariff deadlines.


Kip Louttit of the Marine Exchange of Southern California says ship traffic is the highest in months. The Northwest Seaport Alliance also reports more vessel calls. But May was slow, so congestion isn’t expected. Still, spot rates are shaky. Prices from Asia to the West Coast dropped to
$2,900 per container, a 10% decrease in a week and 50% from the June highs.


The National Retail Federation predicts a sharp drop in imports from July through October, suggesting this early “peak” is just a blip.


US-Mexico Freight Projects Target Bottlenecks


Despite tariff worries, cross-border freight investment is booming. Laredo, Texas, now America’s top import hub, sees more than 18,000 trucks daily. Waits can stretch to 24 hours. New projects in Texas include two additional bridges in Laredo and Eagle Pass, as well as an 18-lane expansion in McAllen.


The big bet is on Green Corridors, a privately funded project approved in June that involves a 160-mile elevated route for autonomous freight shuttles between Laredo and Monterrey. The $6 billion to $10 billion project aims to reduce emissions, traffic, and delays.
All shipments will be scanned, compared to just 5% today, boosting security.


Backed by Chang Robotics, KPMG, and local governments, Green Corridors has five years to launch. If it works, it could serve as a model for similar routes near Houston and other major ports. For now, it’s a bold plan to combat strained border logistics.


Experience Seamless Shipping with Entourage Freight Solutions


Entourage Freight Solutions believes in total transparency in the shipping process. That is why we invest in tech solutions that track every shipment extensively, monitor every driver, and extract every bit of efficiency without sacrificing quality. 


Our state-of-the-art platform utilizes cloud-based GPS tracking to keep you informed, reroutes shipments on the fly to avoid delays, and even responds to real-time market changes to ensure you receive your shipment on time and as soon as possible.


Our Services:


  • Full Truckload (FTL): When you need a truck all to yourself.
  • Less-Than-Truckload (LTL): Efficient solutions for multi-stop shipments or combining smaller loads to save on costs.
  • Refrigerated Trucking: Keeping your temperature-sensitive products fresh and safe.
  • Cross-Docking: Strategically located facilities in Shelby, Ohio, Cedar Rapids, Iowa, and Romulus, Michigan, for streamlined consolidation, storage, and distribution.


Ready to experience a new level of service and control in your freight shipping?
Request a quote today to see how Entourage Freight Solutions can help with your freight movement and other supply chain needs.

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The freight and logistics market has been navigating a turbulent spring as trade policy swings, supply chain bottlenecks, and shifting consumer behavior ripple through every link of the global network. From record layoffs in retail to volatility in Mexican cross-border shipments, the industry is feeling the heat. And port operators, warehouse managers, and transportation carriers alike are having to adapt to rapid changes in container flows, tariff impacts, and regulatory shifts . We have unpacked the critical developments around the freight world, each reflecting the delicate balance between capacity, demand, and regulation that supply chain leaders must navigate. Continue reading to find out more. Tariff Volatility Fuels Cross-Border Freight Swings U.S. shippers face erratic cross-border freight flows from Mexico as tariff uncertainties continue to disrupt their logistics and supply chain planning. According to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, U.S.-bound truck crossings rose 10.2% in January, fell 6.3% in February, spiked 12% in March, and dropped again by 4.5% in April . Averitt’s Edward Habe attributes this volatility to shippers’ attempts to beat tariff deadlines and navigate unpredictable trade announcements. Although a 25% tariff applies only to goods outside USMCA rules of origin, shippers remain cautious. At Eagle Pass, Texas, beer demand drove a 49.2% year-over-year surge in northbound trucks in Q1, and a considerable part of this was because of Constellation Brands’ Modelo shipments. Meanwhile, Otay Mesa’s volume plummeted 34.9% due to tariffs on Chinese and Southeast Asian imports, which impacted Mexican assembly plants. Key crossings like Laredo and El Paso posted modest declines, while Nogales, Arizona, saw a 4.4% gain. Experts have cautioned that cross-border trade will remain turbulent as long as tariffs fluctuate, making forecasting and operational planning challenging. Chassis Providers Mobilize for Import Surge With U.S. ports bracing for an influx of Chinese imports, America’s largest marine chassis providers — TRAC Intermodal, DCLI, and FlexiVan — are pulling tens of thousands of units from storage , inspecting, and repositioning them to key inland hubs like Chicago, Dallas, and Memphis. TRAC’s Val Noel said, “It could be like a tsunami,” as companies aim to avoid service disruptions. TRAC and DCLI are working closely with BNSF and Union Pacific to anticipate container volumes. FlexiVan, exiting Southern California’s Pool of Pools, is focusing on core partner Ocean Network Express and opened a new chassis pool at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Logistics providers say it takes weeks to inspect and repair stored chassis, a process they have accelerated since learning lessons during the pandemic. Private chassis pools and railroad container management have improved since the COVID-19 pandemic, reducing pressure on public chassis pools. However, with a surge expected this summer, providers are racing to ensure sufficient capacity and avoid bottlenecks that plagued past import booms. Forecast Points to Port Volatility Ahead U.S. retailers are anticipating a temporary surge in port activity this summer, driven by the 90-day U.S.-China tariff pause that slashed rates on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%. According to the National Retail Federation’s Global Port Tracker, this pause has prompted a rush to restock, with volumes rebounding in June to an estimated 2.01 million TEUs, despite being down 6.2% year over year . However, April’s peak at 2.21 million TEUs was short-lived, with May volumes projected to drop to 1.91 million TEUs, the lowest since December 2023. Retailers are also front-loading back-to-school and winter holiday orders, creating an unusual overlap of peak seasons. Yet, forecasts for September and October show sharp declines of 21.8% and 19.8%, respectively. With port labor strikes and tariff policy swings in play, importers face a turbulent second half of 2025, highlighting the challenges of managing global supply chains in an unpredictable trade environment. Tariff Whiplash Sparks Supply Chain Disruptions April saw the largest recorded monthly drop in the U.S. trade deficit, driven by a 16% import plunge after a tariff-driven order surge. The numbers highlight a troubling supply chain crunch. Data shows warehouse inventories are bloated while replenishment orders stall, widening the gap between inventory levels and costs to 26.8 points , the third highest on record. With storage fees still climbing, small businesses are particularly squeezed, says Colorado State’s Zachary Rogers. Freight rates on the China-U.S. route spiked 88%, with container spot rates expected to peak in June before easing. Flexport’s Ryan Petersen warns that stacked tariffs (some containers face 70% total duties) add layers of uncertainty. Smaller logistics providers, representing the “middle mile,” are hit hardest as large players hoard capacity. C.H. Robinson and Flexport offer tech solutions that help with tariff simulation, but July’s potential tariff increase continues to add uncertainty. The bottom line is that small and mid-tier firms bear the brunt of tariff swings, threatening their viability in an increasingly volatile trade environment. LTL Market Faces Soft Demand as Tonnage Declines Tonnage fell in May for multiple carriers . According to initial reports from Old Dominion Freight Line, Saia, and XPO, sluggish demand persisted in the market. LTL tonnage per day and shipments for these firms all declined compared to a year ago. However, the severity of the drops varied, with Old Dominion hit the hardest and Saia receding the least among the group. In contrast, ArcBest’s asset-based segment reported a 6% year-over-year increase in total tons per day for the month. That came as daily shipments were up 7% for May, “reflecting success in capturing new core business,” the company said. Saia bucked the trend, growing LTL weight per shipment by 3% year over year in May. Manufacturing woes and the customer makeup of these carriers are affecting their tonnage and weight changes. Experts say LTL carriers are navigating a low-demand environment by focusing on profitable lanes and contractual freight rather than chasing volume with pricing concessions. Tariff-Driven Trade Shifts Threaten West Coast Ports U.S. ports are navigating a shifting trade landscape as importers look to sidestep tariffs on Chinese goods, driving cargo diversification toward Southeast Asia and India. According to Larry Gross of Gross Transportation Consulting, the U.S. West Coast, which handled 57% of Chinese imports in 2024, is expected to lose the most as trade reroutes. Chinese volumes accounted for 65% of West Coast port traffic, while only 27% and 8% went to the East and Gulf coasts , respectively. Southeast Asian imports already account for 32% of 2024 TEUs, offering some relief, but not enough to offset the decline from China. When shippers pivot to India, the East Coast captures 86% of inbound freight, reinforcing its resilience. Additional shifts in supply chains, such as labor-related cargo diversions and closures of the Red Sea and Suez Canal, further complicate port planning. Gross warns that the West Coast faces a “triple-barreled threat” of lower trade volumes, loss of diverted cargo to the East and Gulf coasts, and the erosion of Chinese import dominance. Retail Layoffs Surge 274% Amid Tariffs, Economic Pessimism U.S. retailers cut nearly 76,000 jobs in the first five months of 2025. A 274% surge over the same period in 2024, driven by tariffs, economic pessimism, and shifting consumer spending patterns. According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, retail ranked second in total job cuts, behind only government losses. May alone saw 11,483 layoffs in retail, up from 7,235 in April , reflecting industrywide struggles. Andrew Challenger, senior vice president at the firm, attributed the trend to tariffs, funding cuts, and economic headwinds that have forced companies to tighten budgets. Major brands like Nike, Walmart, and Procter & Gamble announced significant layoffs in May, with Nike shifting responsibilities within its global tech team, Walmart trimming 1,500 positions in tech and operations, and P&G slashing 7,000 nonmanufacturing jobs, which is about 15% of its workforce. Despite the cuts, overall U.S. employment grew by 139,000 in May, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%. Challenger noted that while some companies continue to hire, they do so cautiously, reflecting a challenging macroeconomic backdrop. Experience Seamless Shipping with Entourage Freight Solutions Entourage Freight Solutions believes in total transparency in the shipping process. That is why we invest in tech solutions that track every shipment extensively, monitor every driver, and extract every bit of efficiency without sacrificing quality. Our state-of-the-art platform utilizes cloud-based GPS tracking to keep you informed, reroutes shipments on the fly to avoid delays, and even responds to real-time market changes to ensure you receive your shipment on time and as soon as possible. Our Services Full Truckload (FTL): When you need a truck all to yourself. Less-Than-Truckload (LTL): Efficient solutions for multi-stop shipments or combining smaller loads to save on costs. Refrigerated Trucking: Keeping your temperature-sensitive products fresh and safe. Cross-Docking: Strategically located facilities in Shelby, Ohio, Cedar Rapids, Iowa, and Romulus, Michigan, for streamlined consolidation, storage, and distribution. Ready to experience a new level of service and control in your freight shipping? Request a quote today to see how Entourage Freight Solutions can help with your freight movement and other supply chain needs.