Trucking Rates Hold as Orders Plunge and Tariff Threats Continue

Nick Terry • May 30, 2025

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May brought a fresh wave of operational recalibration across the U.S. logistics, retail, and manufacturing sectors.

Freight market stakeholders are navigating intensifying pressures tied to tariffs, regulatory uncertainty, and shifting consumer sentiment. Carriers are struggling to match revived trans-Pacific demand, while the LTL market holds pricing power amid broader freight softness. At the same time, truck makers are scaling back forecasts as uncertainty clouds the industrial outlook.

We have compiled critical developments defining the freight world and reshaping commercial strategy for global supply chain operations. From record LTL prices to license violations and retaliatory tariff risks, there is a lot in store in this edition of the EFS newsletter.

Truck Rates Expected to Hold Steady Despite Import Surge

A surge in U.S. imports during the 90-day tariff pause is boosting ocean rates, but the surge is unlikely to affect truckload and drayage pricing, according to analysts at Truckstop and FTR Transportation Intelligence. Despite stronger inbound flows at ports, truck capacity remains abundant, 35% higher than in 2019, blunting any upward pressure on rates.

While some drayage drivers may shift to spot truckload, most surface freight markets remain stable. April saw increased load activity in hubs like Atlanta, Dallas, and Phoenix, but national dry van spot rates hovered around $1.60 per mile, with little change year over year.

Logistics providers like AFS and ITS Logistics expect some rate movement in June, but not enough to spark a freight rebound. Without broader economic catalysts, front-loaded imports are unlikely to reverse the freight recession that began in 2022. Analysts say tariffs alone don’t generate demand, and the market remains consistent, if soft, for now.

Truck Orders Plunge Amid Tariff Pressures, Market Uncertainty, and Rising Prices

U.S. Class 8 truck sales fell 9.4% year over year in Q1, with 50,627 units sold, as OEMs faced a mix of freight market softness, tariff uncertainty, and rising input costs. Although overall orders dropped sharply, April bookings plunged 52.1% year over year, per ACT Research.

Major manufacturers like Daimler, Volvo, and Paccar cut 2025 outlooks, citing weak demand and the impact of the Trump administration’s tariffs, including new 25% duties on steel and aluminum. Only Mack saw growth, with orders up 108%, driven by vocational truck demand.

Fleet caution, emissions rule uncertainty, and material price hikes contributed to a gloomy outlook. Layoffs followed: VTNA, Mack, and International cut more than 1,900 jobs in Q1. Daimler now forecasts 260,000-290,000 truck sales in North America for 2025, down from earlier expectations of 280,000-320,000.

Executives warn that tariffs and shifting policy will likely suppress new truck orders through the end of 2025.

EU Tariff Threat Raises Costs, Risks Reshoring Goals

According to logistics and trade experts, President Trump’s proposed 50% tariff on EU goods risks inflating production costs for U.S. manufacturers and straining a critical trade relationship. While Trump accuses the EU of trade barriers and manipulation, critics argue the proposed tariff could backfire by raising prices on industrial components essential to U.S. manufacturing.

Andy Abbott, CEO of Atlantic Container Line, said the EU supplies goods for U.S. production, unlike Asia’s consumer-driven exports, making higher tariffs counterproductive to Trump’s reshoring agenda. Analysts warn that reduced EU imports would also raise container rates for U.S. exporters, increasing outbound costs and hurting competitiveness.

Recent recovery in ocean freight bookings from Europe could stall if tariffs are imposed, while retaliatory EU measures remain a looming threat. Legal experts say Trump may also target Apple through a broader national security review of tech imports.

While the administration aims to pressure the EU on agriculture and digital trade, many believe achieving consensus will be difficult amid diverging interests across the 27-member bloc.

4% of US Truckers Lack Valid CDL, Raising Alarms Over Safety

A new analysis shows that roughly 4% of truck drivers operating on U.S. highways at any time lack a valid commercial driver’s license (CDL).

Based on FMCSA roadside inspection data, the figure highlights a regulatory gap with major safety implications, especially for vehicles exceeding 26,000 pounds or transporting hazardous materials. 2025 data also shows a 56.4% violation rate across inspected trucks and a 19.3% out-of-service rate, mirroring recent years.

In Q1 alone, there were 645 fatal truck crashes, each carrying an average economic cost of $7.2 million, according to insurance data. Consequences for unlicensed operation include fines, jail time, and suspensions, depending on the infraction. Trucking expert Adam Wingfield suggests the push to fill seats amid perceived driver shortages may have compromised safety standards.

Industry leaders argue for tougher enforcement, saying improved compliance could reduce fatalities, raise industry professionalism, and increase trucking rates due to reduced capacity, ultimately making U.S. roads safer for everyone.

LTL Pricing Holds at Peak as Truckload Market Stays Depressed

U.S. LTL pricing remains at record levels, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ PPI holding at 259 from February through April, equal to its June 2022 peak. Rates are up 12.1% from July 2023 following Yellow’s collapse and 4.9% year over year.

This surge corresponds with Q1 contract renewals, with LTL carriers reporting mid-single-digit rate hikes. The LTL PPI tracks total costs to shippers, including surcharges and accessorials, not just base rates. Tariff-related demand fluctuations have had little impact on LTL pricing so far.

In contrast, the truckload market remains soft. The truckload PPI fell in April and is now 24.6% below its May 2022 high. Despite a 2.7% increase in LTL terminals last year, LTL capacity remains tighter than in truckload, which continues to face excess carrier volume, 37% more than in 2019.

This divergence reflects structural shifts as LTL firms hold pricing power while truckload carriers compete in a saturated spot market.

Walmart Leads Tariff-Driven Price Hikes, Warns More Increases Coming

Walmart confirmed it will raise prices in late May and early summer as tariff-hit goods reach shelves. CFO John David Rainey called the speed and scale of cost increases “unprecedented.” Some hikes, like bananas rising to 54 cents a pound, are already in effect.

While the recent U.S.-China deal reduced tariffs from 145% to 30%, Walmart warned that even the lower rate will significantly impact prices. Sales remained strong, with U.S. comparable sales rising 4.5% in the quarter ending May 2. However, Walmart withheld a profit forecast, suggesting it may absorb some costs to stay competitive.

CEO Doug McMillon praised the White House for progress but urged further reductions. As retailers, including Target, Lowe’s, and Home Depot, prepare to report earnings, Walmart’s actions signal broader pricing pressure across the sector. The retailer plans to selectively adjust prices while leaning on private labels and advertising to protect margins.

Target Q1 Sales Dip 3.1% Amid Tariff Pressures, Consumer Backlash, and Exec Turnover

Target’s Q1 2025 merchandise sales fell 3.1% year over year to $23.4 billion, with overall comps down 3.8%, led by a 5.7% drop in store sales, partially offset by 4.7% digital growth. Despite a 13.6% rise in operating income, the retailer cut its full-year outlook from growth to a low-single-digit sales decline.

CEO Brian Cornell cited falling consumer confidence, tariff uncertainty, and backlash to diversity policy rollbacks as key headwinds. Tariff mitigation has included supplier negotiations, sourcing shifts, and selective pricing adjustments.

Target announced a new Enterprise Acceleration Office to speed execution, led by COO Michael Fiddelke, alongside major leadership exits — including Chief Strategy Officer Christina Hennington and Chief Legal Officer Amy Tu.

Analysts criticized Target’s missteps in inventory and customer service, noting the company’s strategic reset, including a five-year merchandising revamp and new Shipt delivery perks, will take time to gain traction. For now, the retailer faces uphill challenges in a softening economy.

Entourage Freight Solutions: Food-Grade Expertise for All Your Shipping Needs

Our roots run deep in food service logistics, and our expertise and track record speak for themselves. At Entourage Freight Solutions, we’ve built our reputation on handling perishable and sensitive shipments with the utmost care and precision. This dedication to service and attention to detail extends to every shipment we touch -- perishable or not.

We believe in total transparency. That is why we invest in tech solutions that extensively track every shipment, monitor every driver, and squeeze out every bit of efficiency without sacrificing quality. Our state-of-the-art platform uses cloud-based GPS tracking to keep you informed, reroutes shipments on the fly to avoid delays, and even reacts to real-time market changes to ensure you’re getting your shipment on time and as soon as possible.

Our Services

Full Truckload (FTL): When you need a truck all to yourself.
Less-Than-Truckload (LTL): Efficient solutions for multi-stop shipments or combining smaller loads to save on costs.
Refrigerated Trucking: Keeping your temperature-sensitive products fresh and safe.
Cross-Docking: Strategically located facilities in Shelby, Ohio, Cedar Rapids, Iowa, and Romulus, Michigan, for streamlined consolidation, storage, and distribution.

Ready to experience a new level of service and control in your freight shipping? Request a quote today to see how Entourage Freight Solutions can help with your freight movement and other supply chain needs.

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Supply Chains Consider Realignments Amid Tariffs and Trade Shifts

By Nick Terry • May 16, 2025

Supply chains in the U.S. are grappling with a complex mix of tariff pressures, declining freight volumes, and structural shifts in global sourcing. Export declines, container rate volatility, and the end of key trade exemptions are testing resilience across logistics networks. West Coast ports face significant volume drops, while e-commerce players scramble to overhaul fulfillment models. Meanwhile, heavy-haul operators warn of infrastructure gaps, and carriers struggle to maintain stable rates despite reduced demand. Retailers and manufacturers are front-loading cargo and diversifying supply chains where possible, but the broader freight economy continues to feel the weight of policy-driven disruption. This bimonthly newsletter edition looks at critical developments shaping how goods move across the U.S. and global markets as companies navigate an increasingly unpredictable trade landscape. Exports, Imports Plunge as Tariffs Hit Ag, Manufacturing Hard A nationwide export slump that has continued since the start of 2025 continues to deepen as tariffs and trade wars disrupt U.S. trade, hitting agriculture hard. Ports like Portland and Tacoma report that export volume has dropped to 51%, while imports plunged 43% week over week through April 28. Major agricultural exports such as soybeans, corn, and beef are among the hardest hit so far. Retailers across various industries are also facing a potential inventory shortage as freight experts project a 15% to 20% decline in imports sooner rather than later. Ocean carriers like Matson have already reported a 30% loss in their volumes and are increasingly uncertain when conditions will improve. Despite some manufacturers shifting sourcing to Vietnam, Thailand, and other countries, Michigan State’s Jason Miller warns that no alternatives can fully offset the 30-60% volume gap created by the tariff fallout. Shrinking China Cargo Share Signals US Employment Risks China’s share of U.S. port imports has declined sharply due to tariffs. In 2024, China accounted for 51% of Los Angeles cargo and 61% at Long Beach , and key retail categories, including toys, furniture, plastics, and electronics, depended heavily on Chinese imports. Following expert warnings that sourcing shifts to Southeast Asia cannot fully compensate for the 30-60% volume loss, there is enough reason for local employment around the most affected ports to be worried, as fewer imports equal fewer drayage drivers and warehouse workers, coupled with knock-on effects from less activity in general. E-Commerce Sellers Scramble as De Minimis Exemption Ends On May 2, the U.S. ended the de minimis exemption for goods from China and Hong Kong, subjecting shipments under $800 to a 145% tariff . In response to the move, Shein and Temu raised prices by 40% to 100%. The exemption facilitated 1.36 billion shipments in 2024. However, with the exemption scrapped, more than 80% of e-commerce executives say the change threatens their business viability. Brands like Kuru Footwear and ThirdLove are shifting inventory into U.S. warehouses or sourcing from Vietnam to limit tariff exposure. Smaller retailers face the toughest challenges as they restructure fulfillment models or pass costs to consumers. Many expect additional policy tightening that could further alter cross-border shipping practices. Heavy Loads at Risk as Freight Network Mapping Stalls The long-anticipated National Multimodal Freight Network (NMFN), aimed at mapping critical U.S. freight corridors, faces uncertainty under the Trump administration. The draft network covers 175,000 miles of transport routes and 205 ports and airports , but has stalled due to political changes. Oversized/overweight (OS/OW) carriers fear that vital infrastructure may be neglected without official designation. Though most states now offer automated permitting systems, challenges like rest area shortages and infrastructure unsuitable for large cargo remain. The Specialized Carriers & Rigging Association (SC&RA) urges federal-state coordination to maintain heavy-haul corridors essential for industrial projects. Delays in finalizing the NMFN may impact long-term logistics planning and investment. West Coast Ports Brace for Sharp Import Declines Ports including Los Angeles, Long Beach, and the Northwest Seaport Alliance anticipate a 35% to 38% decline in import volumes through June, driven by 59 blank sailings. Experts believe the impact could eliminate anywhere from 65,000 to 71,000 TEUs of weekly freight volumes in Southern California. Oakland and Seattle-Tacoma also are seeing rising blank sailings, while Vancouver remains largely unaffected due to its focus on Canadian trade. The ILWU criticized the tariffs, citing risks to supply chain employment. Terminal operators are reducing gate hours in response to falling volumes. Industry leaders expect further disruption if tariffs remain in place, potentially impacting West Coast port employment and capacity utilization. Trump Holds Firm on Canadian Tariffs President Trump confirmed that no immediate tariff relief is forthcoming for Canada, despite recent talks with Prime Minister Mark Carney. Canada faces 25% tariffs on general imports, 10% on energy and potash, and additional duties on auto parts, steel, and aluminum . Some goods under USMCA remain exempt. Carney emphasized Canada’s trade integration with the U.S., noting that 50% of Canadian-assembled cars contain U.S. parts. Trump maintained that tariffs are essential to protect U.S. manufacturing, especially the automotive sector. As automakers navigate rising costs and supply chain challenges, both nations continue discussing potential trade agreement revisions , though no policy changes are imminent. Asia-US Ocean Freight Rates Hold Steady Container spot rates from Asia to the U.S. West and East coasts have held flat since mid-April at $2,790 and $3,830 per FEU, respectively, according to Xeneta. Rates are down 52% and 44% year to date , despite an April 1 spike. More than 40 blank sailings to the West Coast and 20 to the East Coast have offset reduced demand driven by 145% tariffs. Trans-Pacific capacity cuts are expected to reach 28% for the West Coast and 42% for the East Coast. Shippers front-loaded cargo before tariff hikes, temporarily boosting Q1 volumes. Xeneta’s Peter Sand cautioned that the rate plateau is likely temporary unless demand rebounds or tariffs ease, with further declines possible in the second half of 2025. Entourage Freight Solutions: Calm Shipping Amid the Tariff and Trade Storm Entourage Freight Solutions believes in total transparency in the shipping process. That is why we invest in tech solutions that track every shipment extensively, monitor every driver, and extract every bit of efficiency without sacrificing quality. Our state-of-the-art platform utilizes cloud-based GPS tracking to keep you informed, reroutes shipments on the fly to avoid delays, and even responds to real-time market changes to ensure you receive your shipment on time and as soon as possible. Our Services Full Truckload (FTL): When you need a truck all to yourself. Less Than Truckload (LTL): Efficient solutions for multi-stop shipments or combining smaller loads to save on costs. Refrigerated Trucking: Keeping your temperature-sensitive products fresh and safe. Cross Docking: Strategically located facilities in Shelby, Ohio, Cedar Rapids, Iowa, and Romulus, Michigan, for streamlined consolidation, storage, and distribution. Ready to experience a new level of service and control in your freight shipping? Request a quote today to see how Entourage Freight Solutions can help with your freight movement and other supply chain needs.

Tariffs, Trade Policy, and the Great Freight Fallout

By Nick Terry • April 28, 2025

In 2025, trade policy is no longer something that the freight industry can leave on the back burner. Trade policy today is shaping strategy at every level. From tariff escalations and retaliatory duties to sweeping regulatory changes and targeted maritime fees, supply chain leaders are navigating a freight market in which unpredictability is the only constant. Sourcing decisions are shifting, pricing dynamics are unstable, and long-standing operational models are being rewritten in real time. This edition brings together key stories highlighting the growing pressure across logistics channels. Each development points to an industry moving fast, and often reactively, to keep pace with volatile policy decisions. Tariffs Stall US Freight Recovery as Shippers Pause Orders The recent move by the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) to impose entrance fees on Chinese-built ships calling U.S. ports has only added to the confusion and uncertainty gripping global supply chains and freight operations. Shippers are pausing plans and slashing orders, with truckload volumes, containerized imports, and manufacturing output all showing signs of contraction. Ocean freight spot rates have collapsed: Asia-U.S. West Coast rates have fallen 61% since January to $2,050 per FEU, while East Coast rates have dropped 53.7% to $3,100 per FEU . Blank sailings are rising, with vessels leaving Asia half-empty. Amazon and Five Below are among the major retailers reducing orders from Asia. Container imports jumped 15.3% in 2024, but forecasts now predict a 20-27% decline through the summer. Exporters, particularly agriculture and forestry suppliers, are also squeezed, facing 125% retaliatory tariffs from China. Truckload and intermodal rates remain stagnant, while U.S. factory output fell sharply in March. US Apparel Importers Brace for Long-Term Volume Declines According to Trade Partnership Worldwide, a 124.1% tariff on Chinese clothing and footwear is expected to reduce U.S. apparel imports by 1.6% annually . China still accounts for 41.7% of apparel shipments, leaving limited flexibility for diversion. The American Apparel and Footwear Association (AAFA) is warning of price hikes and mounting infrastructure stress as sourcing pivots toward Vietnam, India, and Indonesia. A looming May 2 deadline for de minimis exemptions could further complicate flows and delay deliveries. Even with a temporary 90-day pause in reciprocal tariffs, the policy uncertainty already affects long-term planning. AAFA CEO Steve Lamar calls the shifting policies “chaotic,” and warned that high tariff pressure will hit both importers and U.S. manufacturers reliant on Chinese components. Port and rail capacity limitations at larger gateways are adding to concerns. Retailers now face rising costs, shrinking margins, and operational delays — all while consumer demand continues to shift rapidly. Freight Pricing Gains Lose Momentum According to the TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index, Q1 truckload rates rose 5.9% above the 2018 baseline, but are expected to decline slightly in Q2. Shippers are responding to tariff threats with aggressive front-loading and shorter-haul routes, driving per-shipment costs to three-year lows. LTL carriers remain focused on profitable lanes and high-quality freight rather than chasing volume. The index forecasts a 0.7% year-over-year increase in LTL rate per pound for Q2 , despite sustained demand softness and macro uncertainty. A key driver behind the softening spot market conditions is a shift to shorter hauls and regionalized distribution, pushing per-shipment costs to their lowest point in more than three years. This trend reflects how retailers and manufacturers are repositioning inventory in response to tariff volatility, as NRF’s Jonathan Gold and DAT analyst Dean Croke noted. Meanwhile, the LTL sector is seeing a 4% rise in fuel surcharges, offsetting lower weights and shorter hauls. With the freight market still under pressure after 26 months of contraction, optimism remains subdued as we enter the midyear period. US Truckload Freight Spot Rates Continue to Fluctuate National benchmark rates have experienced a decline across all categories. As of April 18, dry van decreased by 4 cents to $1.62, reefer by 2 cents to $1.88 , and flatbed by 3 cents to $2.16. This marked the first overall decrease since late January, signaling potential shifts in market dynamics. These changes can be attributed to factors such as tariff uncertainties and tighter capacity, especially affecting the flatbed market. Flatbed rates rely heavily on manufacturing activity in the country, which has been particularly hard-hit by the ongoing trade war with China, and to some extent, with the rest of the world. US Finalizes Tiered Fee Plan Targeting Chinese Ships The U.S. is moving forward with a revised plan to levy voyage-based fees on Chinese-owned and Chinese-built ships calling at American ports. The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) announced the measure as part of a broader Trump administration effort to counter China’s dominance in shipbuilding and logistics while reigniting domestic ship construction and port infrastructure investment. Starting in six months, Chinese operators will be charged $50 per net ton, with an annual increase of $30 for three years . Non-Chinese carriers using Chinese-built vessels will face lower rates, beginning at $18 per ton or $120 per container, with annual increases. The USTR capped fee applications at five voyages per vessel annually, scaling back its original, more punitive per-port-call proposal after intense industry pushback. The fees are tied to findings from a USTR investigation, which concluded that China’s shipbuilding dominance — producing 29% of global fleet capacity and 70% of all container ships on order — stemmed from unfair trade practices. Exemptions apply to ships arriving empty, those in the Great Lakes or U.S. territories, and some bulk exports. LNG vessel transport restrictions will phase in over 22 years to support U.S. production. China’s largest container carrier, Cosco Shipping Lines, has sharply criticized the USTR’s plan. In a strongly worded statement, Cosco labeled the move as “discriminatory,” and warned it would disrupt global industrial and supply chain stability. Cosco denied allegations from that USTR investigation that claimed China manipulated its shipping and shipbuilding sectors to gain an unfair advantage. The carrier said it upholds “integrity, transparency, and compliance” in global competition and remains committed to ensuring the resilience of international trade. Walmart Investing $6B in Mexico, Central America Store Expansion Walmart of Mexico and Central America will invest $6 billion to open new stores across the region , reinforcing its long-term commitment to growth in Latin America. The expansion will include Bodega Aurrera, Walmart Supercenters, Sam’s Club, and Walmart Express formats, building on a robust network of 3,200 stores across all 32 Mexican states. This latest move echoes Walmart’s earlier $1.3 billion investment in 2016 for regional distribution and operational upgrades. The retailer entered the Mexican market in 1991 with a Sam’s Club in Mexico City. In a statement, Walmart said the new expansion reflects confidence in the region’s economic potential and consumer demand. Globally, Walmart continues to invest aggressively in infrastructure and store development. The company has pledged about $4.5 billion for its Canadian operations and $1.3 billion in Chile to build 70 new stores and a distribution center. In the U.S., Walmart is executing a five-year plan to build or convert more than 150 stores while modernizing 650 existing locations under its “Store of the Future” initiative. Experience Seamless Shipping with Entourage Freight Solutions Entourage Freight Solutions believes in total transparency in the shipping process. That is why we invest in tech solutions that track every shipment extensively, monitor every driver, and extract every bit of efficiency without sacrificing quality. Our state-of-the-art platform utilizes cloud-based GPS tracking to keep you informed, reroutes shipments on the fly to avoid delays, and even responds to real-time market changes to ensure you receive your shipment on time and as soon as possible. Our Services Full Truck Load (FTL): When you need a truck all to yourself. Less-Than-Truckload (LTL): Efficient solutions for multi-stop shipments or combining smaller loads to save on costs. Refrigerated Trucking: Keeping your temperature-sensitive products fresh and safe. Cross-Docking: Strategically located facilities in Shelby, Ohio, Cedar Rapids, Iowa, and Romulus, Michigan, for streamlined consolidation, storage, and distribution. Ready to experience a new level of service and control in your freight shipping? Request a quote today to see how Entourage Freight Solutions can help with your freight movement and other supply chain needs.