LTL Carriers Gear Up for Growth Amid Revised Trucking Payroll Data

Nick Terry • March 28, 2025

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LTL carriers are building terminals and adding lanes to be ready for a freight rebound expected later this year. These carriers are also bracing for future market shifts, including changes like the upcoming FedEx Freight spinoff and a potential LTL move by Amazon.

Meanwhile, employment figures for February revealed that trucking employment has been over-reported by 2% to 4% since 2022. Revised data now places the number of trucking employees at about 1.49 million, below the levels seen prior to the pandemic in 2019.

Continue reading to stay abreast of the latest news and trends happening across the industry.

LTL Carriers Gear Up for Growth

The current freight demand in the U.S. is weak. However, less-than-truckload carriers continue to expand their capacity and infrastructure. They are building terminals and adding lanes even when shipments fall short. The idea behind the continued push for expansion is that LTL companies are setting up to move quickly when freight picks up later this year.

Some carriers, like Roadrunner, have added hundreds of lanes to reach shippers faster. Other firms are investing in service centers to boost next-day and same-day service. Executives say the usual March peak is missing, and recent shipment numbers are down for many top carriers. However, they are hoping that capacity will tighten and trigger higher rates.

They are also preparing for future shifts in the market, including changes like the upcoming FedEx Freight spinoff and a possible LTL move by Amazon, which could add more capacity and impact freight prices further.

Revised Data Signals Shift to Smaller Carriers

U.S. employment data for February revealed a larger-than-expected shortfall in trucking employment, throwing light on a structural change in the U.S. trucking market.

The shortfall implies that, at least at larger carriers, truckload capacity could quickly tighten when demand rises. It also underscores a shift in employment from larger carriers to smaller trucking firms, a shift that may be permanent. Larger truckload carriers have cut capacity, while the number of small carriers has grown by 35% compared to pre-2020 figures.

This shift means more drivers now work for smaller firms, a change that may be permanent. The new data suggests that truckload capacity could tighten more quickly when demand rises. Shippers report that capacity remains available, and pricing is increasing only modestly. This change in employment distribution may have lasting effects on the trucking market as businesses plan for 2025 and beyond.

Trump Considers Targeted Reciprocal Tariffs

President Donald Trump indicated he is reviewing a new set of reciprocal tariffs set to be revealed April 2, which he calls “Liberation Day.” These tariffs aim to match those other countries impose on U.S. imports, but are expected to be narrower in scope than earlier proposals. Trump mentioned the possibility of offering some countries breaks, claiming that the U.S. has been generous in past dealings.

The plan calls for tariffs on any country that levies duties on U.S. goods. Treasury officials pointed to 15 nations known for unfair trade practices, including Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, the EU, India, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Russia, and Vietnam. Additional tariffs may target such goods as aluminum, lumber, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors. A 25% tariff also will apply to imports from any nation purchasing oil or gas from Venezuela.

Tariffs, Rising Prices Spark Growing Inflation Fears

Consumer expectations for inflation over the next year have risen to 6.2% from 5.8% in February. Many point to high prices on basic items like eggs and the effect of tariffs as key factors. A University of Michigan survey shows that inflation expectations have climbed the fastest since 1993.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that long-term expectations remain steady, even as short-term concerns grow. Officials now expect core inflation to end the year at 2.8%. Federal Reserve Board of Governors member Adriana Kugler said rising prices, partly tied to trade policies, add to the economic uncertainty felt by consumers.

Retailers Stockpile Inventory to Beat Tariffs

Retailers are buying extra stock to lessen the impact of tariffs from the Trump administration. Stores from Costco to Williams-Sonoma and Zumiezare placing unusually large orders for items ranging from kitchenware to sneakers. They hope that by stockpiling now, they can avoid higher costs later.

While this approach acts as a buffer against rising tariffs, it also exposes companies to the risk of holding unsold goods if consumer spending slows. The strategy comes amid ongoing changes in inventory management since the pandemic, with many businesses shifting from a lean, just-in-time approach to a more cautious, just-in-case method.

Other factors, like potential port strikes and factory shutdowns during the Lunar New Year, have also pushed retailers to pull orders forward. While the tactic may protect margins in the short term, it leaves companies vulnerable if demand weakens.

Trump Imposes 25% Tariff on Foreign-Made Vehicles

President Trump signed an order toimpose a 25% tariff on all automotive vehicles produced outside the U.S. The tariff goes into effect April 2 and applies to a wide range of imported vehicles and parts, including engines, transmissions, and electrical components. Parts made in the U.S. will not be taxed if the vehicle is foreign-made.

Importers under the USMCA can certify their U.S. content to limit the tariff to only non-U.S. portions, with full application for parts by May 3. Automakers had seen a pause in tariffs after discussions with major companies like General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis. The new measure raises concerns among automakers and parts suppliers, especially since a large share of U.S. vehicle imports comes from Mexico and Canada, prompting further U.S. capacity investments.

Proposed Port Fees Risk Disrupting Shipping

The U.S. Trade Representative is holding hearings on proposed fees that could hit Chinese-operated cargo ships with charges up to $1.5 million per call. The fees aim to boost U.S. shipbuilding and counter practices by China, which now leads in shipbuilding.

However, critics warn that many U.S. carriers, heavily reliant on Chinese-built vessels, may face steep financial and operational challenges. Atlantic Container Line warned that if the fees take effect, it could shut down its U.S. service, forcing job cuts and shifting trade routes.

Other stakeholders, including manufacturers and unions, express concern that these fees will reduce cargo capacity, drive up export costs, and hurt U.S. competitiveness in global trade.

Navigate Market with Entourage Freight Solutions

Entourage Freight Solutions stands out with its extensive background and expertise in food service logistics. Our unique approach, honed in the food supply chain, ensures an unmatched service level and extreme attention to detail in meeting all our shippers’ needs.

We can achieve a higher service level on all movements by approaching every shipment, whether shelf-stable or not, with the same care and consideration as the regulation-laden food supply chain industry. We also leave nothing to chance, tracking all legs of transportation and driver activity to maximize available capacity without sacrificing quality.

Our platforms use the latest cloud-based, GPS-enabled technologies. They can track drivers regardless of location, continuously reroute shipments based on the dynamics at play, such as weather or traffic, and account for real-time changes in market rates. At Entourage Freight Solutions, we offer a broad range of unsurpassed services. These include:

1. Full Truckload (FTL): For shipments requiring a dedicated whole truckload.

2. Less-than-truckload (LTL): For companies moving multiple shipments to different locations or consolidating goods from other companies to get a lower all-in rate.

3. Refrigerated Trucking or “Reefer” Transportation: Leveraged to avoid spoilage and damage to temperature-sensitive goods.

4. Cross-Docking: With locations in Shelby, Ohio, Cedar Rapids, Iowa, and Romulus, Michigan, that serve as cross-docks for strategic consolidation, storage, and end-to-end distribution programs.

Request a quote today to see how Entourage Freight Solutions can help with your freight movement and other supply chain needs.

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Tariffs, Trade Policy, and the Great Freight Fallout

By Nick Terry • April 28, 2025

In 2025, trade policy is no longer something that the freight industry can leave on the back burner. Trade policy today is shaping strategy at every level. From tariff escalations and retaliatory duties to sweeping regulatory changes and targeted maritime fees, supply chain leaders are navigating a freight market in which unpredictability is the only constant. Sourcing decisions are shifting, pricing dynamics are unstable, and long-standing operational models are being rewritten in real time. This edition brings together key stories highlighting the growing pressure across logistics channels. Each development points to an industry moving fast, and often reactively, to keep pace with volatile policy decisions. Tariffs Stall US Freight Recovery as Shippers Pause Orders The recent move by the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) to impose entrance fees on Chinese-built ships calling U.S. ports has only added to the confusion and uncertainty gripping global supply chains and freight operations. Shippers are pausing plans and slashing orders, with truckload volumes, containerized imports, and manufacturing output all showing signs of contraction. Ocean freight spot rates have collapsed: Asia-U.S. West Coast rates have fallen 61% since January to $2,050 per FEU, while East Coast rates have dropped 53.7% to $3,100 per FEU . Blank sailings are rising, with vessels leaving Asia half-empty. Amazon and Five Below are among the major retailers reducing orders from Asia. Container imports jumped 15.3% in 2024, but forecasts now predict a 20-27% decline through the summer. Exporters, particularly agriculture and forestry suppliers, are also squeezed, facing 125% retaliatory tariffs from China. Truckload and intermodal rates remain stagnant, while U.S. factory output fell sharply in March. US Apparel Importers Brace for Long-Term Volume Declines According to Trade Partnership Worldwide, a 124.1% tariff on Chinese clothing and footwear is expected to reduce U.S. apparel imports by 1.6% annually . China still accounts for 41.7% of apparel shipments, leaving limited flexibility for diversion. The American Apparel and Footwear Association (AAFA) is warning of price hikes and mounting infrastructure stress as sourcing pivots toward Vietnam, India, and Indonesia. A looming May 2 deadline for de minimis exemptions could further complicate flows and delay deliveries. Even with a temporary 90-day pause in reciprocal tariffs, the policy uncertainty already affects long-term planning. AAFA CEO Steve Lamar calls the shifting policies “chaotic,” and warned that high tariff pressure will hit both importers and U.S. manufacturers reliant on Chinese components. Port and rail capacity limitations at larger gateways are adding to concerns. Retailers now face rising costs, shrinking margins, and operational delays — all while consumer demand continues to shift rapidly. Freight Pricing Gains Lose Momentum According to the TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index, Q1 truckload rates rose 5.9% above the 2018 baseline, but are expected to decline slightly in Q2. Shippers are responding to tariff threats with aggressive front-loading and shorter-haul routes, driving per-shipment costs to three-year lows. LTL carriers remain focused on profitable lanes and high-quality freight rather than chasing volume. The index forecasts a 0.7% year-over-year increase in LTL rate per pound for Q2 , despite sustained demand softness and macro uncertainty. A key driver behind the softening spot market conditions is a shift to shorter hauls and regionalized distribution, pushing per-shipment costs to their lowest point in more than three years. This trend reflects how retailers and manufacturers are repositioning inventory in response to tariff volatility, as NRF’s Jonathan Gold and DAT analyst Dean Croke noted. Meanwhile, the LTL sector is seeing a 4% rise in fuel surcharges, offsetting lower weights and shorter hauls. With the freight market still under pressure after 26 months of contraction, optimism remains subdued as we enter the midyear period. US Truckload Freight Spot Rates Continue to Fluctuate National benchmark rates have experienced a decline across all categories. As of April 18, dry van decreased by 4 cents to $1.62, reefer by 2 cents to $1.88 , and flatbed by 3 cents to $2.16. This marked the first overall decrease since late January, signaling potential shifts in market dynamics. These changes can be attributed to factors such as tariff uncertainties and tighter capacity, especially affecting the flatbed market. Flatbed rates rely heavily on manufacturing activity in the country, which has been particularly hard-hit by the ongoing trade war with China, and to some extent, with the rest of the world. US Finalizes Tiered Fee Plan Targeting Chinese Ships The U.S. is moving forward with a revised plan to levy voyage-based fees on Chinese-owned and Chinese-built ships calling at American ports. The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) announced the measure as part of a broader Trump administration effort to counter China’s dominance in shipbuilding and logistics while reigniting domestic ship construction and port infrastructure investment. Starting in six months, Chinese operators will be charged $50 per net ton, with an annual increase of $30 for three years . Non-Chinese carriers using Chinese-built vessels will face lower rates, beginning at $18 per ton or $120 per container, with annual increases. The USTR capped fee applications at five voyages per vessel annually, scaling back its original, more punitive per-port-call proposal after intense industry pushback. The fees are tied to findings from a USTR investigation, which concluded that China’s shipbuilding dominance — producing 29% of global fleet capacity and 70% of all container ships on order — stemmed from unfair trade practices. Exemptions apply to ships arriving empty, those in the Great Lakes or U.S. territories, and some bulk exports. LNG vessel transport restrictions will phase in over 22 years to support U.S. production. China’s largest container carrier, Cosco Shipping Lines, has sharply criticized the USTR’s plan. In a strongly worded statement, Cosco labeled the move as “discriminatory,” and warned it would disrupt global industrial and supply chain stability. Cosco denied allegations from that USTR investigation that claimed China manipulated its shipping and shipbuilding sectors to gain an unfair advantage. The carrier said it upholds “integrity, transparency, and compliance” in global competition and remains committed to ensuring the resilience of international trade. Walmart Investing $6B in Mexico, Central America Store Expansion Walmart of Mexico and Central America will invest $6 billion to open new stores across the region , reinforcing its long-term commitment to growth in Latin America. The expansion will include Bodega Aurrera, Walmart Supercenters, Sam’s Club, and Walmart Express formats, building on a robust network of 3,200 stores across all 32 Mexican states. This latest move echoes Walmart’s earlier $1.3 billion investment in 2016 for regional distribution and operational upgrades. The retailer entered the Mexican market in 1991 with a Sam’s Club in Mexico City. In a statement, Walmart said the new expansion reflects confidence in the region’s economic potential and consumer demand. Globally, Walmart continues to invest aggressively in infrastructure and store development. The company has pledged about $4.5 billion for its Canadian operations and $1.3 billion in Chile to build 70 new stores and a distribution center. In the U.S., Walmart is executing a five-year plan to build or convert more than 150 stores while modernizing 650 existing locations under its “Store of the Future” initiative. Experience Seamless Shipping with Entourage Freight Solutions Entourage Freight Solutions believes in total transparency in the shipping process. That is why we invest in tech solutions that track every shipment extensively, monitor every driver, and extract every bit of efficiency without sacrificing quality. Our state-of-the-art platform utilizes cloud-based GPS tracking to keep you informed, reroutes shipments on the fly to avoid delays, and even responds to real-time market changes to ensure you receive your shipment on time and as soon as possible. Our Services Full Truck Load (FTL): When you need a truck all to yourself. Less-Than-Truckload (LTL): Efficient solutions for multi-stop shipments or combining smaller loads to save on costs. Refrigerated Trucking: Keeping your temperature-sensitive products fresh and safe. Cross-Docking: Strategically located facilities in Shelby, Ohio, Cedar Rapids, Iowa, and Romulus, Michigan, for streamlined consolidation, storage, and distribution. Ready to experience a new level of service and control in your freight shipping? Request a quote today to see how Entourage Freight Solutions can help with your freight movement and other supply chain needs.