Strategic Capacity Planning for Seasonal Peaks in Retail and Manufacturing

Nick Terry • September 26, 2025

Blog Post CTA

Seasonal surges and demand spikes often bring logistical challenges, such as truck scarcity and limited warehouse space, which ultimately lead to delays, higher costs, and lost sales if the shipper is not well prepared. However, by being strategic about capacity planning for seasonal peaks, you can ensure smoother supply chain operations and fewer surprises.


But how do you establish strategic capacity planning for seasonal peaks?


1. Forecasting Demand Accurately

Predicting demand with precision is the first step in preparing for the seasonal peaks. And that can be achieved through studying and analyzing past shipping records. Accurate forecasting enhances the shipper’s ability to anticipate bottlenecks and determine the optimal levels of labor, warehouse space, and truck capacity well in advance of peak seasons.


According to the National Retail Federation,
U.S. retail sales during the 2024 holiday season increased 4% year over year. All things being equal, this means that in 2025, a shipper looking at the previous year’s volumes during holidays or promotions would have a rough baseline to predict demand. However, whatever model you decide to work with, ensure that you factor in external triggers such as trade tariffs, inflation, school calendars, and consumer trends. 


2. Building Flexible Transportation Options

Once demand is clear and inventories are arranged, the next step is to determine the transportation mode. Ideally, this mode should be mixed, as relying on a single mode, except in situations in which it is absolutely necessary, can leave your shipping operations vulnerable during seasonal surges. It is typically more prudent to spread demand across full truckload (FTL), less-than-truckload (LTL), and cross-dock setups. The strategy provides more room for your freight to maneuver when demand shifts quickly.


Spot market truck rates can rise by 20-30%
during retail shipping peaks. To avoid that, establish agreements with carriers to cover sudden surges, lock in core carriers for stability, and reserve short-term deals for overflow. However, flexibility can reduce exposure to these price swings while maintaining freight movement.


3. Warehouse and Cross-Dock Planning

Even the best transportation plan will fail if goods are left to stall inside the warehouse. 

However, an effective cross-docking strategy and scheduling will ensure trucks stay loaded and are constantly on the move. Adopting a warehouse strategy that aligns with your peak season demand and operations can be the difference between meeting and missing customer orders.


To do that, ensure the following:


  • Extend operating hours: Add shifts before seasonal surges to reduce congestion.
  • Pre-stage high-demand products: Place fast-moving SKUs near dock doors for faster loading.
  • Use cross-docking: Transfer inbound goods directly to outbound trucks to save time and space.
  • Strengthen communication: Keep dock managers and carriers aligned to avoid long dwell times.


4. Adopting Technology for Real-Time Visibility

One disruption during seasonal peaks can be devastating for the bottom line, which is why visibility tools are embedded well into every trucking operation at EFS. They give you and your freight team the ability to act before potential disruptions become a reality. And even when the event is unavoidable, you can take necessary actions before it spirals out of control. 


In the current freight market, every minute counts, and knowing the freight’s location and how it moves is critical. With the right visibility tools and features such as GPS and real-time alerts, shippers can track shipments in real time, reroute quickly, improve communication, and avoid demurrage and detention. For shippers, visibility means fewer missed deadlines during
manufacturing freight challenges.


5. Partnering with a 3PL for Added Capacity

A survey by Armstrong & Associates found that 90% of Fortune 500 companies rely on 3PLs for at least part of their transportation needs. For smaller shippers, this partnership levels the playing field during seasonal spikes.


Ideally, you should work closely with and share information with suppliers and carriers, such as Entourage Freight Solutions. This way, you can align equipment and schedules.
Leveraging the resources of third-party logistics in your capacity planning for peak season provides a safety net because the right 3PL guarantees access to a larger carrier pool, technology platforms, and market knowledge that shippers may lack.


Entourage Freight Solutions
is a one-stop third-party logistics solution built to support every aspect of the supply chain operation. By partnering with us for your capacity planning for peak seasons, you have access to:



  • Broader carrier network: EFS can tap into thousands of trucks to cover seasonal surges.
  • Specialized equipment: From reefers to expedited vans, 3PLs bring resources that are hard to secure on short notice.
  • Cost stability: 3PLs negotiate competitive rates across carriers, softening the blow of seasonal price hikes.
  • Operational support: A partner can also manage scheduling, tracking, and documentation to reduce stress on internal teams.


Connect with us
today.

EFStrucking
By Nick Terry September 12, 2025
We dive into rising LTL rates amid falling volumes, looming overcapacity, tariff rulings, and density-based reclassifications shaping 2025-2026 freight.
truck parking FS
By Nick Terry August 29, 2025
The $100 billion truck parking gap, UPS buyouts, tariffs, and AI adoption reshape supply chains.
EFS supply chain
By Nick Terry August 25, 2025
Discover how to build a resilient manufacturing supply chain with risk mitigation, flexible logistics, and 3PL partnerships to manage global trade shifts.
EFS cargo theft
By Nick Terry August 18, 2025
Explore the latest in freight and logistics, from rising cargo theft and FedEx’s LTL spin-off to major acquisitions and tariff shifts.
truck parking
By Nick Terry July 29, 2025
On the freight front: broker transparency battles, LTL rule delays, drayage distress, truckload stagnation, warehouse slowdowns, and job cuts.
EFS EV
By Nick Terry July 24, 2025
Learn how electric vehicles are changing supply chains. Explore challenges in battery transport and safety rules and how shippers can stay ahead.
EFS warehouse
By Nick Terry July 15, 2025
New tariffs, driver shortages, port automation resistance, EV adoption, and rising warehouse vacancies are reshaping the U.S. freight economy in July.
EFS Long Beach
By Nick Terry June 27, 2025
Explore key trends reshaping the U.S. freight market in 2025 — from spot rate fluctuations and FMCSA enforcement to the rise of reverse logistics.
EFS e-commerce
By Nick Terry June 27, 2025
Learn how to adapt retail logistics for e-commerce surges using agile systems, real-time tracking, and smart warehouse automation.
By Nick Terry June 13, 2025
The freight and logistics market has been navigating a turbulent spring as trade policy swings, supply chain bottlenecks, and shifting consumer behavior ripple through every link of the global network. From record layoffs in retail to volatility in Mexican cross-border shipments, the industry is feeling the heat. And port operators, warehouse managers, and transportation carriers alike are having to adapt to rapid changes in container flows, tariff impacts, and regulatory shifts . We have unpacked the critical developments around the freight world, each reflecting the delicate balance between capacity, demand, and regulation that supply chain leaders must navigate. Continue reading to find out more. Tariff Volatility Fuels Cross-Border Freight Swings U.S. shippers face erratic cross-border freight flows from Mexico as tariff uncertainties continue to disrupt their logistics and supply chain planning. According to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, U.S.-bound truck crossings rose 10.2% in January, fell 6.3% in February, spiked 12% in March, and dropped again by 4.5% in April . Averitt’s Edward Habe attributes this volatility to shippers’ attempts to beat tariff deadlines and navigate unpredictable trade announcements. Although a 25% tariff applies only to goods outside USMCA rules of origin, shippers remain cautious. At Eagle Pass, Texas, beer demand drove a 49.2% year-over-year surge in northbound trucks in Q1, and a considerable part of this was because of Constellation Brands’ Modelo shipments. Meanwhile, Otay Mesa’s volume plummeted 34.9% due to tariffs on Chinese and Southeast Asian imports, which impacted Mexican assembly plants. Key crossings like Laredo and El Paso posted modest declines, while Nogales, Arizona, saw a 4.4% gain. Experts have cautioned that cross-border trade will remain turbulent as long as tariffs fluctuate, making forecasting and operational planning challenging. Chassis Providers Mobilize for Import Surge With U.S. ports bracing for an influx of Chinese imports, America’s largest marine chassis providers — TRAC Intermodal, DCLI, and FlexiVan — are pulling tens of thousands of units from storage , inspecting, and repositioning them to key inland hubs like Chicago, Dallas, and Memphis. TRAC’s Val Noel said, “It could be like a tsunami,” as companies aim to avoid service disruptions. TRAC and DCLI are working closely with BNSF and Union Pacific to anticipate container volumes. FlexiVan, exiting Southern California’s Pool of Pools, is focusing on core partner Ocean Network Express and opened a new chassis pool at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Logistics providers say it takes weeks to inspect and repair stored chassis, a process they have accelerated since learning lessons during the pandemic. Private chassis pools and railroad container management have improved since the COVID-19 pandemic, reducing pressure on public chassis pools. However, with a surge expected this summer, providers are racing to ensure sufficient capacity and avoid bottlenecks that plagued past import booms. Forecast Points to Port Volatility Ahead U.S. retailers are anticipating a temporary surge in port activity this summer, driven by the 90-day U.S.-China tariff pause that slashed rates on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%. According to the National Retail Federation’s Global Port Tracker, this pause has prompted a rush to restock, with volumes rebounding in June to an estimated 2.01 million TEUs, despite being down 6.2% year over year . However, April’s peak at 2.21 million TEUs was short-lived, with May volumes projected to drop to 1.91 million TEUs, the lowest since December 2023. Retailers are also front-loading back-to-school and winter holiday orders, creating an unusual overlap of peak seasons. Yet, forecasts for September and October show sharp declines of 21.8% and 19.8%, respectively. With port labor strikes and tariff policy swings in play, importers face a turbulent second half of 2025, highlighting the challenges of managing global supply chains in an unpredictable trade environment. Tariff Whiplash Sparks Supply Chain Disruptions April saw the largest recorded monthly drop in the U.S. trade deficit, driven by a 16% import plunge after a tariff-driven order surge. The numbers highlight a troubling supply chain crunch. Data shows warehouse inventories are bloated while replenishment orders stall, widening the gap between inventory levels and costs to 26.8 points , the third highest on record. With storage fees still climbing, small businesses are particularly squeezed, says Colorado State’s Zachary Rogers. Freight rates on the China-U.S. route spiked 88%, with container spot rates expected to peak in June before easing. Flexport’s Ryan Petersen warns that stacked tariffs (some containers face 70% total duties) add layers of uncertainty. Smaller logistics providers, representing the “middle mile,” are hit hardest as large players hoard capacity. C.H. Robinson and Flexport offer tech solutions that help with tariff simulation, but July’s potential tariff increase continues to add uncertainty. The bottom line is that small and mid-tier firms bear the brunt of tariff swings, threatening their viability in an increasingly volatile trade environment. LTL Market Faces Soft Demand as Tonnage Declines Tonnage fell in May for multiple carriers . According to initial reports from Old Dominion Freight Line, Saia, and XPO, sluggish demand persisted in the market. LTL tonnage per day and shipments for these firms all declined compared to a year ago. However, the severity of the drops varied, with Old Dominion hit the hardest and Saia receding the least among the group. In contrast, ArcBest’s asset-based segment reported a 6% year-over-year increase in total tons per day for the month. That came as daily shipments were up 7% for May, “reflecting success in capturing new core business,” the company said. Saia bucked the trend, growing LTL weight per shipment by 3% year over year in May. Manufacturing woes and the customer makeup of these carriers are affecting their tonnage and weight changes. Experts say LTL carriers are navigating a low-demand environment by focusing on profitable lanes and contractual freight rather than chasing volume with pricing concessions. Tariff-Driven Trade Shifts Threaten West Coast Ports U.S. ports are navigating a shifting trade landscape as importers look to sidestep tariffs on Chinese goods, driving cargo diversification toward Southeast Asia and India. According to Larry Gross of Gross Transportation Consulting, the U.S. West Coast, which handled 57% of Chinese imports in 2024, is expected to lose the most as trade reroutes. Chinese volumes accounted for 65% of West Coast port traffic, while only 27% and 8% went to the East and Gulf coasts , respectively. Southeast Asian imports already account for 32% of 2024 TEUs, offering some relief, but not enough to offset the decline from China. When shippers pivot to India, the East Coast captures 86% of inbound freight, reinforcing its resilience. Additional shifts in supply chains, such as labor-related cargo diversions and closures of the Red Sea and Suez Canal, further complicate port planning. Gross warns that the West Coast faces a “triple-barreled threat” of lower trade volumes, loss of diverted cargo to the East and Gulf coasts, and the erosion of Chinese import dominance. Retail Layoffs Surge 274% Amid Tariffs, Economic Pessimism U.S. retailers cut nearly 76,000 jobs in the first five months of 2025. A 274% surge over the same period in 2024, driven by tariffs, economic pessimism, and shifting consumer spending patterns. According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, retail ranked second in total job cuts, behind only government losses. May alone saw 11,483 layoffs in retail, up from 7,235 in April , reflecting industrywide struggles. Andrew Challenger, senior vice president at the firm, attributed the trend to tariffs, funding cuts, and economic headwinds that have forced companies to tighten budgets. Major brands like Nike, Walmart, and Procter & Gamble announced significant layoffs in May, with Nike shifting responsibilities within its global tech team, Walmart trimming 1,500 positions in tech and operations, and P&G slashing 7,000 nonmanufacturing jobs, which is about 15% of its workforce. Despite the cuts, overall U.S. employment grew by 139,000 in May, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%. Challenger noted that while some companies continue to hire, they do so cautiously, reflecting a challenging macroeconomic backdrop. Experience Seamless Shipping with Entourage Freight Solutions Entourage Freight Solutions believes in total transparency in the shipping process. That is why we invest in tech solutions that track every shipment extensively, monitor every driver, and extract every bit of efficiency without sacrificing quality. Our state-of-the-art platform utilizes cloud-based GPS tracking to keep you informed, reroutes shipments on the fly to avoid delays, and even responds to real-time market changes to ensure you receive your shipment on time and as soon as possible. Our Services Full Truckload (FTL): When you need a truck all to yourself. Less-Than-Truckload (LTL): Efficient solutions for multi-stop shipments or combining smaller loads to save on costs. Refrigerated Trucking: Keeping your temperature-sensitive products fresh and safe. Cross-Docking: Strategically located facilities in Shelby, Ohio, Cedar Rapids, Iowa, and Romulus, Michigan, for streamlined consolidation, storage, and distribution. Ready to experience a new level of service and control in your freight shipping? Request a quote today to see how Entourage Freight Solutions can help with your freight movement and other supply chain needs.