Rates Rise Despite Volume Pressures, Overcapacity

Nick Terry • September 12, 2025

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Despite declining volumes and soft macroeconomics, less-than-truckload (LTL) and truckload pricing rose in August. The inventory trends are pointing to a possible restocking frenzy come early 2026, which may stimulate freight flows, while overcapacity in the truckload sector is now expected to extend into 2027.


LTL carriers are adjusting to a major classification shift from the National Motor Freight Traffic Association (NMFTA), and pricing strategies are evolving amid margin pressures. Additionally, there is the potential fallout from a U.S. Supreme Court decision that could force the federal government to return more than $160 billion in tariffs.


From legal battles to network recalibration, these developments shape how freight moves — and how much it costs. Below, you’ll find summaries of seven critical developments that are reshaping the road ahead.


LTL, Truckload Rates Climb in Tepid Market


Despite sluggish freight volumes, pricing for LTL and truckload managed to rise in August, hinting at strategic rate resilience among carriers. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics,
truckload pricing climbed 1.8% from July, which is the sharpest month-over-month jump since December 2024 — though it still sat 0.2% below August 2024 levels. 


Meanwhile, LTL rates advanced 1.5% from July and saw a striking 10.5% year-over-year gain, continuing a steady rise since the collapse of Yellow in July 2023. Industry experts are suggesting that this pricing uptick is less about market momentum and more about preemptive positioning. 


“Shippers are willing to hang on to their current contracts and capacity,” said Keith Prather of Armada Corporate Intelligence, anticipating a rebound in demand later this year. LTL carriers, traditionally focused on profitability over market share, are feeling pressure from falling volumes. Truckload pricing, in contrast, is recovering slowly from its 2023 trough, helped marginally by seasonal produce shipments and import front-loading out of Southern California. 


Lean Inventories Set Stage for Trucking Rebound


Despite a prolonged freight slump, experts believe that early 2026 may offer a turning point for U.S. trucking due to tightening retail inventories. During the Journal of Commerce’s Mid-Year Trucking Outlook webcast, Keith Prather of Armada Corporate Intelligence noted that only 7% of the market is currently overstocked, with some sectors potentially facing stockouts in the coming months. 


Retailers’ inventory-to-sales ratios are significantly below both pre-pandemic and 10-year averages, 1.30 in June compared to a 10-year average of 1.43, highlighting lean stock levels across general merchandise and wholesale channels. This opens the door for a potential restocking wave, particularly if consumer spending holds steady. 


In contrast,
manufacturing inventory ratios are elevated at 1.57, reflecting overstocked conditions amid tariff uncertainty and import pull-forward. S&P Global’s Paul Bingham emphasized that while the U.S. economy isn’t heading into recession, growth will remain soft. 


Durable goods spending is expected to decline in 2025, even after pre-tariff buying sprees. But the GDP forecast of 1.9% for 2025, which is down from 2.8% in 2024, suggests a mildly supportive macroeconomic environment.


LTL Carriers Face Volume Pressure   


In August, major LTL carriers continued to feel the weight of a sluggish domestic economy. Old Dominion Freight Line, XPO, and Saia all reported year-over-year tonnage declines, with daily shipment counts down across the board. Only ArcBest bucked the trend, posting a 2% increase in tonnage in its asset-based segment. 


Saia noted a marginal 0.1% increase in weight per shipment, while others saw declines. Still, carriers are pointing to a stronger yield performance and margin expansion opportunities. Old Dominion saw a 4.7% uptick in billed revenue per hundredweight, attributing this to its service quality. “The improvement in our revenue per hundredweight demonstrates the value that our customers realize,” said CEO Kevin Freeman.


Carriers acknowledged external factors, which include reliance on third-party haulers during market expansions
, but they are still focused on pricing discipline and long-term positioning as near-term demand remains uneven.


Truckload Overcapacity Expected to Persist Through 2027


According to FTR Transportation Intelligence, truckload overcapacity is proving stubborn, with no significant market tightening expected until 2027.
Despite weak rates and widespread carrier exits, the U.S. trucking sector remains saturated, particularly with small fleets. As of August, the number of drivers at fleets with one to five trucks is still 39% higher than in March 2020, despite a drop from a pandemic-era peak.


“There’s been a stabilization of the carrier population,” said Avery Vise, VP at FTR, who highlighted the resilience of small carriers. Meanwhile, large carriers, those with more than 100 trucks, have seen a modest 1.1% decrease in driver head count since 2020.
Active truck utilization remains between 92% and 94%. And with a limited exit pressure on small operators, FTR does not foresee meaningful tightening in supply. Contract and spot rate forecasts for dry van loads show only slight gains through 2026, but that number falls below inflation, suggesting minimal relief for carriers.


Some industry voices, like Werner Enterprises’ Matt Perry, argue that rate recovery will hinge more on capacity contraction than on a demand rebound.


Supreme Court to Decide Fate of $160B in Tariffs 


The U.S. Supreme Court is set to weigh in on the extent of presidential authority over tariff policy, potentially reshaping trade dynamics and
exposing the government to over $160 billion in refund claims


In V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. Trump, the court will fast-track a challenge to President Donald Trump’s broad imposition of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), with briefs due by September 19 and oral arguments scheduled for early November.

The case consolidates opposition from five businesses and a coalition of 12 states, which argue that Trump exceeded his authority. A federal appeals court has already ruled against the administration’s interpretation of IEEPA. 


In response, the Department of Justice warned that stripping the executive branch of this power could leave the U.S. economically vulnerable, stating in a September brief that it would “thrust America back to the brink of economic catastrophe.”


LTL Industry Adjusts to NMFC Density Shift   


The July updates to the National Motor Freight Classification (NMFC) system are reshaping pricing mechanisms across the LTL sector, but the transition has been more manageable than initially feared. 


Speaking at the FTR Transportation Conference, various executives likened the change to a nonevent, noting that reclassification hasn’t triggered widespread disruption. The
NMFC update moves freight classification toward a density-based model, aligning charges more closely with space utilization rather than commodity type. 


FedEx Freight, the largest LTL carrier, did delay enforcement for 150 days to give shippers time to adapt. Others, including Echo Global Logistics and Pitt Ohio, emphasized that the real impact depends on how quickly carriers begin enforcing reclassification fees.


Echo SVP Marty Martin and Pitt Ohio VP Shawn Galloway emphasized the educational gap for shippers, many of which were using outdated classification codes. “Most shippers are a long way from that,” said Martin, referencing the shift toward order-by-order density calculation. 


LTL Carriers Struggle to Balance Volumes, Pricing 


Despite the volume downturn in the U.S. LTL market, some carriers are holding firm on pricing or even pushing yield.
ODFL reported a 4.5% increase in revenue per hundredweight, excluding fuel, even though overall daily revenue fell. 


ABF held revenue per hundredweight flat in August. Yet industry observers warn that this pricing discipline may be weakening, as some carriers turn to selective lane-based discounts to fill trailers. Technology-driven pricing analytics are enabling more targeted concessions, a far cry from the sweeping markdowns that gutted profitability during the 2009 downturn. 


Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index for LTL services continues to climb, reaching 265.4 in July, a 7.3% year-over-year gain — highlighting the tension between rising costs and soft freight demand in today’s LTL market.


Navigating the Market With Entourage Freight Solutions


Entourage Freight Solutions
stands out with its extensive background and expertise in food service logistics. Our unique approach, honed in the food supply chain, ensures an unmatched service level and extreme attention to detail in meeting all our shippers’ needs.


Our platforms use the latest cloud-based, GPS-enabled technologies. They can track drivers regardless of location, continuously reroute shipments based on the dynamics at play, such as weather or traffic, and account for real-time changes in market rates. At Entourage Freight Solutions, we offer a broad range of unsurpassed services. These include:


1. Full Truckload (FTL):
For shipment requiring a dedicated whole truckload.

2. Less-than-truckload (LTL): For companies moving multiple LTL shipments to different locations or consolidating LTL goods from other companies to get a lower all-in rate.

3. Refrigerated Trucking or “Reefer” Transportation: Leveraged to avoid spoilage and damage to temperature-sensitive goods.

4. Cross-Docking: With locations in Shelby, Ohio, Cedar Rapids, Iowa, and Romulus, Michigan, that serve as cross-docks for strategic consolidation, storage, and end-to-end distribution programs.


Request a quote
today to see how Entourage Freight Solutions can help with your freight movement and other supply chain needs. 


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