Freight Strategies Shift Amid Tariff Pressures
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The freight and logistics sector is navigating a volatile mix of cargo crime, shifting trade policies, and strategic business realignments as 2025 progresses. Cargo theft is on the rise in both the U.S. and Mexico, with thieves targeting high-value, fast-moving consumer goods through increasingly sophisticated — and in Mexico, often violent — methods.
Meanwhile, cross-border trade with Mexico is losing momentum as tariffs cool investment, signaling a new period of recalibration for an industry that is striving to remain resilient in an increasingly unpredictable market. Cost pressures remain intense, with U.S. tariffs at their highest levels in decades and overcapacity depressing freight rates.
The U.S. has extended its pause on new China duties while collecting record tariff revenues — although still insufficient to close the widening federal budget gap. In other news, FedEx’s planned freight spin-off might lead to reshaping shipper contracts and pricing models in the less-than-truckload (LTL) space, while Echo Global Logistics is expanding through acquisition to bolster its West Coast presence.
Cargo Theft Surges in US and Mexico
Cargo theft in North America increased significantly in Q2 of 2025, with the U.S. reporting 525 incidents, representing a 33% year-over-year rise. California accounted for 38% of U.S. thefts — driven by Los Angeles and Long Beach port activity, which alone comprised 36% of the national total.
Analysts link the surge to tariff-related import spikes into California, alongside notable increases in Tennessee, Pennsylvania, and Illinois.
Top U.S. theft categories included:
Electronics — mixed loads (29%), batteries/panels (18%), and computers (14%).- Food & beverage — coffee and energy drinks (21% of category).
- Home & garden — appliances and pet supplies.
Pilferage was the most common method (52%), followed by full truckload thefts (22%), concentrated in Texas, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and California.
In Mexico, 82% of thefts involved violence, with Puebla and the state of Mexico leading in the number of incidents. Food and beverage goods topped the list (33%), with in-transit truck interceptions (65%) and theft from unsecured parking (34%) as primary methods.
FedEx Freight Spin-Off to Reshape LTL Contract Landscape
FedEx’s plan to spin off FedEx Freight by June 2026 could significantly alter how shippers negotiate LTL contracts. While large-volume customers typically have stand-alone deals, many smaller shippers rely on bundled agreements that link parcel and LTL services, allowing LTL spend to unlock parcel delivery discounts.
According to EVP & Chief Customer Officer Brie Carere,
dismantling these bundles may reduce cost advantages for small and midsize businesses. FedEx is already approaching high-use LTL customers to shift them into unbundled agreements, said Thomas Andersen of LJM Group.
This could give shippers more freedom to explore competing LTL carriers, but may also erode the integrated cost savings that bundled contracts provide — particularly at a time when discounting is tightening and surcharges are climbing.
Echo Expands West Coast Reach with FreightSaver Buy
Echo Global Logistics has acquired FreightSaver, a Southern California-based 3PL, strengthening its West Coast and Midwest presence amid a sluggish U.S. freight market.
Founded in 2014 by Ryan Renne and Buster Schwab, FreightSaver operates in Utah, Michigan, Ohio, and California, offering truckload, LTL, expedited, specialized freight, and managed transportation services. Echo CEO Doug Waggoner called FreightSaver’s customer-focused, tech-enabled approach a natural fit with Echo’s managed transportation strengths.
Echo, the fifth-largest U.S. freight broker with revenue of $3 billion in 2024, was acquired in 2021 by The Jordan Company for $1.3 billion. The deal came amid slower post-pandemic M&A activity in freight brokerage, following big-ticket deals like RXO’s $1 billion purchase of Coyote Logistics (2024) and J.B. Hunt’s acquisition of BNSF Logistics’ brokerage unit (2023).
With TL and LTL rates under pressure from overcapacity, brokers are leaning on automation to protect margins. FreightSaver President Schwab said the partnership will deliver “smarter logistics” by combining technology and human expertise.
Tariffs and Overcapacity Strain Shipper-Carrier Partnerships
U.S. shippers are facing unprecedented cost pressures, the likes of which have not been seen in decades, with average tariffs now above 18%, up from 2.4% last year, alongside higher nearshoring expenses. Some are diverting cargo from contracted carriers to the spot market for short-term savings — risking long-term relationships.
Global shipping is entering an overcapacity cycle, with new vessel deliveries expected to worsen the imbalance into 2026. Trans-Pacific spot rates have already fallen 70% to the West Coast and 61% to the East Coast since June’s temporary easing of 145% China cargo tariffs.
Carriers are responding with aggressive “low-ball” offers, tempting shippers to abandon contract minimums. Industry experts warn this could backfire when capacity tightens, given carriers’ ability to manage supply through blank sailings. Maintaining commitments and transparency is seen as vital to preserving goodwill before the next rate rebound.
US Extends Pause on Additional China Tariffs
President Donald Trump extended the pause on new retaliatory China tariffs until November 10, citing “significant steps” by Beijing. Since May, the U.S. has applied a 30% combined duty — a 20% fentanyl-related tariff plus a 10% reciprocal tariff — while China cut its April 34% rate to 10% and dropped other retaliatory measures.
The extension follows July trade talks in Stockholm and is tied to a tentative deal framework under which the U.S. would impose 55% tariffs on Chinese goods while China holds at 10% on U.S. imports.
China remains central to U.S. supply chains, representing 10.9% of total U.S. trade in 2024 and contributing to a $295 bill trade deficit — the largest with any nation.
Tariff Revenues Hit Record High But Deficit Still Widens
U.S. customs duties reached $28 billion in July, up 273% year over year — yet the federal budget deficit still widened to $291 billion for the month, 10% higher than July 2024. Fiscal year to date, the deficit totals $1.63 trillion, just 4% narrower than last year after adjustments.
Tariff collections have reached $142 billion so far in FY2025, and the Treasury now expects to exceed 1% of GDP in annual revenue. While June saw a rare $27 billion surplus thanks in part to tariff inflows, July’s record receipts couldn’t offset rising interest costs and higher Medicare and Social Security spending.
Economists warn that the administration’s new tax and spending bill will deepen deficits in the coming years.
DSV Pauses US-Mexico Expansion
DSV, the world’s second-largest logistics provider after acquiring DB Schenker in April, is halting new U.S.-Mexico border investments amid a tariff-driven trade slowdown. CEO Jens H. Lund said the company is pausing cross-border trucking expansion and delaying other projects until trade policy with Mexico becomes clearer.
DSV has been a major investor in U.S.-Mexico infrastructure, doubling border warehouse capacity and tripling its Brownsville, Texas, facility in 2024, as
Mexico overtook China as the United States’ top trading partner last year with $840 billion in bilateral trade.
The slowdown follows a 90-day extension of tariffs on Mexican goods — including cars and steel — and signals that recent nearshoring momentum is cooling under policy uncertainty.
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