Peak season is fading, demand is finally showing signs of life, and yet shippers aren’t getting a break on price. Both LTL and truckload rates are heading toward multiyear highs, driven far more by a shrinking pool of trucks than by any surge in freight, and the brokerage world just got a lot more concentrated.

This edition covers record LTL pricing, the tightest truckload outlook in years, the biggest brokerage deal on record, the end of an unusually long import peak, and an early read on whether freight demand is truly turning the corner.

LTL Rates Hit New High in Q3, Keep Climbing Into Q4

LTL pricing reached a record in the third quarter and is projected to climb even further in the fourth, according to the TD Cowen-AFS Freight Index. High diesel prices are a major driver, with retail diesel up roughly two-thirds from September last year and LTL fuel surcharges rising even faster as a result. Carriers are also leaning on their pricing leverage. Large public LTL carriers have locked in mid-single-digit contract increases, and several have pulled their annual general rate increases forward by months.

What makes the pricing so notable is the backdrop. AFS analysts point out that LTL demand has been soft this year, yet rates have held firm. Part of the explanation is that freight that drifted to truckload is now returning to LTL networks as truckload rates rise, and an expanding manufacturing sector is adding volume. More freight chasing the same network capacity means carriers have little reason to discount.

Truckload Rates Head for Highest Level Since 2022

The same index shows truckload rates reaching their highest level in more than four years in Q4, up nearly 15% from a year ago. The cause isn’t a demand rebound, which remains sluggish. It’s a shrinking pool of trucks. Enforcement actions are pulling drivers off the road and closing training schools, financially strained carriers keep exiting the market, and high operating costs and elevated diesel prices are squeezing those that remain. More than a dozen trucking companies filed for bankruptcy in a single month, showing how thin margins have become.

As AFS Logistics CEO Andy Dyer put it, this is “steady demand chasing a shrinking pool of trucks.” For shippers, that makes early booking and strong carrier relationships more valuable than ever, since the system has far less slack to absorb last-minute requests. It’s also why understanding how shipping rates are calculated matters right now: the more clearly you can see what’s driving a quote, the better you can negotiate it, plan around it, and spot where you can manage costs.

C.H. Robinson to Buy RXO in Largest Brokerage Deal on Record

C.H. Robinson, the country’s largest truck broker, has agreed to acquire RXO, the third largest, in a deal valued at about $5.8 billion. Analysts are calling it the biggest truck brokerage merger in history, larger than RXO’s earlier purchase of Coyote from UPS. 

The two companies serve fairly different customers, with C.H. Robinson leaning toward small and midsized shippers and RXO serving enterprise accounts alongside final-mile and expedited freight, so customer overlap is limited. The savings are expected to come from technology, real estate, and overhead, with the combined company running freight on C.H. Robinson’s existing platform and consolidating duplicate offices.

The bigger takeaway is consolidation. With two of the three biggest brokerage names combining, midsized brokers will now compete with a much larger rival, and the industry is widely expected to keep consolidating. For shippers, that raises a practical question about service and flexibility as brokers get bigger. It’s a good moment to revisit who does what among brokers, 3PLs, 4PLs, and carriers and decide where your freight belongs.

Retailers Say Extended Peak Season Winding Down

After an unusually long run of heavy imports, the National Retail Federation’s latest Global Port Tracker now points to August rather than September as the busiest month of 2026. 

“We’re likely past the busiest part of the year,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy, noting that most holiday merchandise has already arrived and that month-to-month differences are now minor. Retailers are shifting from holiday stocking toward restocking and preparing for early 2027.

The pullback is expected to be gradual rather than abrupt. September and October are both still forecast to run above year-earlier levels before volumes ease further in November, a pattern consistent with the peak season we covered last month. Robust consumer spending has carried volumes this far, even as consumer confidence slipped, inflation rose, and other economic indicators weakened. For shippers, a slow fade means the domestic freight that follows imports inland won’t fall off a cliff either.

Cass Freight Index Shows Shipments Growing Again

Shipments in the Cass Freight Index rose again in September. The gain in August followed a roughly three-and-a-half-year downturn, the longest on record for the index. Shipments were up modestly from a year ago, but total freight spending jumped far more sharply, since it reflects higher volumes, higher rates, and higher fuel surcharges all at once. Truckload linehaul rates in the index were also up about 10% year over year.

Several factors are helping. Modest growth in retail and industrial activity, inventory restocking tied to the surge in container imports, a smaller private fleet, and rising new equipment sales all point toward a firmer freight cycle. 

But the report also flagged headwinds: rising oil prices and higher interest rates could limit how far the rebound goes. Cass itself cautioned that two months of growth doesn’t make a trend, even if the cycle appears to be moving in a positive direction.

What Rising Rates and Tighter Capacity Mean for Shippers

Taken together, these stories point in one direction: costs are rising because capacity is shrinking, demand is only just recovering, and the brokerage landscape is shifting underneath shippers. That puts a premium on carrier relationships, planning ahead, and visibility into every load.

At Entourage Freight Solutions, we help shippers manage exactly this kind of market. Our full truckload and LTL services give you flexibility to match the right mode to each shipment as pricing shifts, while our freight management team keeps your overall program running efficiently. With real-time GPS tracking and dynamic rerouting, we can adjust the moment conditions change.

Request a quote to see how we can help you plan around a market that’s still tightening.