Supply Chain & Logistics News: Is Trucking About to Turn Around?

Is Trucking About to Turn Around?

adam • May 31, 2024

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After soaring demand, tight capacity, and sky-high freight rates in the early days of the pandemic, trucking carriers have witnessed a downturn in the market that has continued through today.

Many analysts who cover the trucking industry and executives in the space are beginning to turn cautiously optimistic, expecting rates and the market to start recovering in the near future. Here are six headlines to keep up on the latest predictions for the trucking market, along with other supply chain and logistics industry news.

Truckload Carriers Head for Equilibrium

The truckload industry is in what FreightWaves described as a “long slog back to market equilibrium.” The publication reported on a recent investor conference, in which two trucking CEOs pointed to signs of recovery for carriers.

Werner Enterprises CEO Derek Leathers said some signals are “more positive.” For one, the number of trucks posted on load boards has declined over the last two months, signally more normalized capacity. The freight boom spurred by the pandemic led to excess trucking capacity entering the market.

In addition, Leathers said Werner’s shippers with dedicated contracts have increased their truck counts, and some have renewed at higher prices. He expects margins to improve throughout the year.

Mark Rourke, Schneider National’s president and CEO, also expressed some positive thoughts on the TL business, according to FreightWaves. Schneider has seen low-single-digit price increases on contract renewals in its one-way truckload segment. Rourke also expects better margins in the following quarters.

Cloudy Trucking Skies Clear

Analysts who cover and follow the truckload market expressed similar sentiments as Schneider’s and Werner’s CEOs. According to Transport Topics, analysts predict an improvement in the market and rates after a challenging Q1.

One analyst from Bloomberg Intelligence said TL rates should start to rise. It won’t be shipper demand that influences the rates, but rather supply factors, and how much the industry is able to balance itself as the oversupply of capacity gradually exits the market.

Another analyst, Avery Vise, FTR Transportation Intelligence vice president for trucking, expects TL spot rates to rise steadily and be positive YOY by Q3. Vise predicts rates will rise by 1% overall in 2024.

Uber Freight projected the market would tighten in the second half of the year and warned shippers to prepare for that eventually.

Finally, Bank of America saw shippers’ freight demand outlook increase to the highest level since June 2022.

High Volumes for Peak Season

Import levels at U.S. seaports are also on the road to recovery. The nation’s top ports had relatively low volume in 2023, Supply Chain Dive reported. But loaded import volumes at the top 12 container ports will stay higher than 2 million TEUs through this October.

As a point of reference, volumes in 2018 and 2019 were below that figure, while the top ports handled well over 2 million TEUs every month from August 2020 through October 2022. In the past couple of years, volumes tapered off, and ports only surpassed the 2 million threshold in September and October of last year.

The National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates made the prediction on import volumes, citing continued consumer spending on goods.

“Regardless of what headlines about the economy might say, consumers are shopping and retailers are making sure they have merchandise on hand to meet demand,” said NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold.

Truck Prices Go Downhill

While the trucking market and imports are on the rise, vehicle prices are sliding down.

Midyear 2022 Class 8 tractors sold at an average retail price in April of $95,365, according to FreightWaves citing information from J.D. Power. That was 5.4% less than in March, a decline of $5,379. But the price was more than $33,000 lower than in February.

A similar situation bore out for model year 2021 vehicles. They sold at an average price of $50,173 in April, down from $54,477 in February. For 2020 tractors, prices fell to $32,433 in April from $37,064 in February.

Supply Chain Reactions to China Tariffs

In regulatory news, the Biden Administration released a plan to increase tariffs on goods imported from China. The administration’s goal is to advance U.S. tech manufacturing while combating trade practices in China.

Supply Chain Dive reported that the increased duties would be on items such as electric vehicles, semiconductors, solar cells, and some medical products.

The supply chain industry had mixed views on the administration’s plan.

Many consumer goods-related organizations disagreed with the proposal. The American Apparel and Footwear Association was against the extended tariffs, calling them “a real blow to American consumers and manufacturers alike.” The Retail Industry Leaders Association also disagreed with the policy, saying the tariffs were harmful to U.S. businesses and consumers. The National Retail Federation said it was “extremely disappointed” with the decision to expand tariffs and called for a new strategy to shift supply chains.

On the other hand, the Alliance for Automotive Innovation agreed that the White House needs to look at ways to enhance the competitiveness of the auto industry in the U.S.

The Freight Fraud Crackdown

Also on Capitol Hill, House lawmakers have introduced a bill to crack down on fraud in freight.

The bill would work to combat fake brokers and carriers that don’t have physical addresses. It would also give federal officials the ability to suspend or revoke broker or carrier registrations that don’t have a valid place of business, FreightWaves reported.

The Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association, the American Trucking Associations’ Moving & Storage Conference, the Transportation Intermediaries Association, the Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance, and several other organizations have endorsed the bill. It’s a rare instance in which trucking organizations have voiced near-unanimous support for a bill.

Navigating the Wavering Trucking Market with EFS

As the trucking market continues its ups and downs, Entourage Freight Solutions can help shippers secure the capacity they need as they navigate the trucking market. EFS provides steady services that can help you navigate an ever-changing logistics environment and receive important information in real time.

Entourage Freight Solutions offers the following services, and many more:

Our LTL service provides on-demand access to capacity, along with real-time data and peace of mind in this high-stakes world.
Our Freight Management lets your team stay organized across inbound and outbound logistics, tracking market capacity and using automation notifications to keep everyone informed.
Our Refrigerated transport provides expertise in everything from finished goods to raw materials, ensuring products arrive on time and in top condition.

Request a quote today to see how Entourage Freight Solutions can help with your freight movement and other supply chain needs.

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Tariffs, Trade Policy, and the Great Freight Fallout

By Nick Terry • April 28, 2025

In 2025, trade policy is no longer something that the freight industry can leave on the back burner. Trade policy today is shaping strategy at every level. From tariff escalations and retaliatory duties to sweeping regulatory changes and targeted maritime fees, supply chain leaders are navigating a freight market in which unpredictability is the only constant. Sourcing decisions are shifting, pricing dynamics are unstable, and long-standing operational models are being rewritten in real time. This edition brings together key stories highlighting the growing pressure across logistics channels. Each development points to an industry moving fast, and often reactively, to keep pace with volatile policy decisions. Tariffs Stall US Freight Recovery as Shippers Pause Orders The recent move by the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) to impose entrance fees on Chinese-built ships calling U.S. ports has only added to the confusion and uncertainty gripping global supply chains and freight operations. Shippers are pausing plans and slashing orders, with truckload volumes, containerized imports, and manufacturing output all showing signs of contraction. Ocean freight spot rates have collapsed: Asia-U.S. West Coast rates have fallen 61% since January to $2,050 per FEU, while East Coast rates have dropped 53.7% to $3,100 per FEU . Blank sailings are rising, with vessels leaving Asia half-empty. Amazon and Five Below are among the major retailers reducing orders from Asia. Container imports jumped 15.3% in 2024, but forecasts now predict a 20-27% decline through the summer. Exporters, particularly agriculture and forestry suppliers, are also squeezed, facing 125% retaliatory tariffs from China. Truckload and intermodal rates remain stagnant, while U.S. factory output fell sharply in March. US Apparel Importers Brace for Long-Term Volume Declines According to Trade Partnership Worldwide, a 124.1% tariff on Chinese clothing and footwear is expected to reduce U.S. apparel imports by 1.6% annually . China still accounts for 41.7% of apparel shipments, leaving limited flexibility for diversion. The American Apparel and Footwear Association (AAFA) is warning of price hikes and mounting infrastructure stress as sourcing pivots toward Vietnam, India, and Indonesia. A looming May 2 deadline for de minimis exemptions could further complicate flows and delay deliveries. Even with a temporary 90-day pause in reciprocal tariffs, the policy uncertainty already affects long-term planning. AAFA CEO Steve Lamar calls the shifting policies “chaotic,” and warned that high tariff pressure will hit both importers and U.S. manufacturers reliant on Chinese components. Port and rail capacity limitations at larger gateways are adding to concerns. Retailers now face rising costs, shrinking margins, and operational delays — all while consumer demand continues to shift rapidly. Freight Pricing Gains Lose Momentum According to the TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index, Q1 truckload rates rose 5.9% above the 2018 baseline, but are expected to decline slightly in Q2. Shippers are responding to tariff threats with aggressive front-loading and shorter-haul routes, driving per-shipment costs to three-year lows. LTL carriers remain focused on profitable lanes and high-quality freight rather than chasing volume. The index forecasts a 0.7% year-over-year increase in LTL rate per pound for Q2 , despite sustained demand softness and macro uncertainty. A key driver behind the softening spot market conditions is a shift to shorter hauls and regionalized distribution, pushing per-shipment costs to their lowest point in more than three years. This trend reflects how retailers and manufacturers are repositioning inventory in response to tariff volatility, as NRF’s Jonathan Gold and DAT analyst Dean Croke noted. Meanwhile, the LTL sector is seeing a 4% rise in fuel surcharges, offsetting lower weights and shorter hauls. With the freight market still under pressure after 26 months of contraction, optimism remains subdued as we enter the midyear period. US Truckload Freight Spot Rates Continue to Fluctuate National benchmark rates have experienced a decline across all categories. As of April 18, dry van decreased by 4 cents to $1.62, reefer by 2 cents to $1.88 , and flatbed by 3 cents to $2.16. This marked the first overall decrease since late January, signaling potential shifts in market dynamics. These changes can be attributed to factors such as tariff uncertainties and tighter capacity, especially affecting the flatbed market. Flatbed rates rely heavily on manufacturing activity in the country, which has been particularly hard-hit by the ongoing trade war with China, and to some extent, with the rest of the world. US Finalizes Tiered Fee Plan Targeting Chinese Ships The U.S. is moving forward with a revised plan to levy voyage-based fees on Chinese-owned and Chinese-built ships calling at American ports. The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) announced the measure as part of a broader Trump administration effort to counter China’s dominance in shipbuilding and logistics while reigniting domestic ship construction and port infrastructure investment. Starting in six months, Chinese operators will be charged $50 per net ton, with an annual increase of $30 for three years . Non-Chinese carriers using Chinese-built vessels will face lower rates, beginning at $18 per ton or $120 per container, with annual increases. The USTR capped fee applications at five voyages per vessel annually, scaling back its original, more punitive per-port-call proposal after intense industry pushback. The fees are tied to findings from a USTR investigation, which concluded that China’s shipbuilding dominance — producing 29% of global fleet capacity and 70% of all container ships on order — stemmed from unfair trade practices. Exemptions apply to ships arriving empty, those in the Great Lakes or U.S. territories, and some bulk exports. LNG vessel transport restrictions will phase in over 22 years to support U.S. production. China’s largest container carrier, Cosco Shipping Lines, has sharply criticized the USTR’s plan. In a strongly worded statement, Cosco labeled the move as “discriminatory,” and warned it would disrupt global industrial and supply chain stability. Cosco denied allegations from that USTR investigation that claimed China manipulated its shipping and shipbuilding sectors to gain an unfair advantage. The carrier said it upholds “integrity, transparency, and compliance” in global competition and remains committed to ensuring the resilience of international trade. Walmart Investing $6B in Mexico, Central America Store Expansion Walmart of Mexico and Central America will invest $6 billion to open new stores across the region , reinforcing its long-term commitment to growth in Latin America. The expansion will include Bodega Aurrera, Walmart Supercenters, Sam’s Club, and Walmart Express formats, building on a robust network of 3,200 stores across all 32 Mexican states. This latest move echoes Walmart’s earlier $1.3 billion investment in 2016 for regional distribution and operational upgrades. The retailer entered the Mexican market in 1991 with a Sam’s Club in Mexico City. In a statement, Walmart said the new expansion reflects confidence in the region’s economic potential and consumer demand. Globally, Walmart continues to invest aggressively in infrastructure and store development. The company has pledged about $4.5 billion for its Canadian operations and $1.3 billion in Chile to build 70 new stores and a distribution center. In the U.S., Walmart is executing a five-year plan to build or convert more than 150 stores while modernizing 650 existing locations under its “Store of the Future” initiative. Experience Seamless Shipping with Entourage Freight Solutions Entourage Freight Solutions believes in total transparency in the shipping process. That is why we invest in tech solutions that track every shipment extensively, monitor every driver, and extract every bit of efficiency without sacrificing quality. Our state-of-the-art platform utilizes cloud-based GPS tracking to keep you informed, reroutes shipments on the fly to avoid delays, and even responds to real-time market changes to ensure you receive your shipment on time and as soon as possible. Our Services Full Truck Load (FTL): When you need a truck all to yourself. Less-Than-Truckload (LTL): Efficient solutions for multi-stop shipments or combining smaller loads to save on costs. Refrigerated Trucking: Keeping your temperature-sensitive products fresh and safe. Cross-Docking: Strategically located facilities in Shelby, Ohio, Cedar Rapids, Iowa, and Romulus, Michigan, for streamlined consolidation, storage, and distribution. Ready to experience a new level of service and control in your freight shipping? Request a quote today to see how Entourage Freight Solutions can help with your freight movement and other supply chain needs.