After soaring demand, tight capacity, and sky-high freight rates in the early days of the pandemic, trucking carriers have witnessed a downturn in the market that has continued through today. 

Many analysts who cover the trucking industry and executives in the space are beginning to turn cautiously optimistic, expecting rates and the market to start recovering in the near future. Here are six headlines to keep up on the latest predictions for the trucking market, along with other supply chain and logistics industry news. 

Truckload Carriers Head for Equilibrium

The truckload industry is in what FreightWaves described as a “long slog back to market equilibrium.” The publication reported on a recent investor conference, in which two trucking CEOs pointed to signs of recovery for carriers. 

Werner Enterprises CEO Derek Leathers said some signals are “more positive.” For one, the number of trucks posted on load boards has declined over the last two months, signally more normalized capacity. The freight boom spurred by the pandemic led to excess trucking capacity entering the market. 

In addition, Leathers said Werner’s shippers with dedicated contracts have increased their truck counts, and some have renewed at higher prices. He expects margins to improve throughout the year.

Mark Rourke, Schneider National’s president and CEO, also expressed some positive thoughts on the TL business, according to FreightWaves. Schneider has seen low-single-digit price increases on contract renewals in its one-way truckload segment. Rourke also expects better margins in the following quarters. 

Cloudy Trucking Skies Clear

Analysts who cover and follow the truckload market expressed similar sentiments as Schneider’s and Werner’s CEOs. According to Transport Topics, analysts predict an improvement in the market and rates after a challenging Q1. 

One analyst from Bloomberg Intelligence said TL rates should start to rise. It won’t be shipper demand that influences the rates, but rather supply factors, and how much the industry is able to balance itself as the oversupply of capacity gradually exits the market. 

Another analyst, Avery Vise, FTR Transportation Intelligence vice president for trucking, expects TL spot rates to rise steadily and be positive YOY by Q3. Vise predicts rates will rise by 1% overall in 2024. 

Uber Freight projected the market would tighten in the second half of the year and warned shippers to prepare for that eventually. 

Finally, Bank of America saw shippers’ freight demand outlook increase to the highest level since June 2022. 

High Volumes for Peak Season

Import levels at U.S. seaports are also on the road to recovery. The nation’s top ports had relatively low volume in 2023, Supply Chain Dive reported. But loaded import volumes at the top 12 container ports will stay higher than 2 million TEUs through this October.

As a point of reference, volumes in 2018 and 2019 were below that figure, while the top ports handled well over 2 million TEUs every month from August 2020 through October 2022. In the past couple of years, volumes tapered off, and ports only surpassed the 2 million threshold in September and October of last year. 

The National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates made the prediction on import volumes, citing continued consumer spending on goods. 

“Regardless of what headlines about the economy might say, consumers are shopping and retailers are making sure they have merchandise on hand to meet demand,” said NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold.

Truck Prices Go Downhill

While the trucking market and imports are on the rise, vehicle prices are sliding down.

Midyear 2022 Class 8 tractors sold at an average retail price in April of $95,365, according to FreightWaves citing information from J.D. Power. That was 5.4% less than in March, a decline of $5,379. But the price was more than $33,000 lower than in February.

A similar situation bore out for model year 2021 vehicles. They sold at an average price of $50,173 in April, down from $54,477 in February. For 2020 tractors, prices fell to $32,433 in April from $37,064 in February. 

Supply Chain Reactions to China Tariffs

In regulatory news, the Biden Administration released a plan to increase tariffs on goods imported from China. The administration’s goal is to advance U.S. tech manufacturing while combating trade practices in China. 

Supply Chain Dive reported that the increased duties would be on items such as electric vehicles, semiconductors, solar cells, and some medical products. 

The supply chain industry had mixed views on the administration’s plan. 

Many consumer goods-related organizations disagreed with the proposal. The American Apparel and Footwear Association was against the extended tariffs, calling them “a real blow to American consumers and manufacturers alike.” The Retail Industry Leaders Association also disagreed with the policy, saying the tariffs were harmful to U.S. businesses and consumers. The National Retail Federation said it was “extremely disappointed” with the decision to expand tariffs and called for a new strategy to shift supply chains. 

On the other hand, the Alliance for Automotive Innovation agreed that the White House needs to look at ways to enhance the competitiveness of the auto industry in the U.S. 

The Freight Fraud Crackdown

Also on Capitol Hill, House lawmakers have introduced a bill to crack down on fraud in freight.

The bill would work to combat fake brokers and carriers that don’t have physical addresses. It would also give federal officials the ability to suspend or revoke broker or carrier registrations that don’t have a valid place of business, FreightWaves reported. 

The Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association, the American Trucking Associations’ Moving & Storage Conference, the Transportation Intermediaries Association, the Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance, and several other organizations have endorsed the bill. It’s a rare instance in which trucking organizations have voiced near-unanimous support for a bill. 

Navigating the Wavering Trucking Market with EFS

As the trucking market continues its ups and downs, Entourage Freight Solutions can help shippers secure the capacity they need as they navigate the trucking market. EFS provides steady services that can help you navigate an ever-changing logistics environment and receive important information in real time. 

Entourage Freight Solutions offers the following services, and many more: 

• Our LTL service provides on-demand access to capacity, along with real-time data and peace of mind in this high-stakes world. 
• Our Freight Management lets your team stay organized across inbound and outbound logistics, tracking market capacity and using automation notifications to keep everyone informed. 
• Our Refrigerated transport provides expertise in everything from finished goods to raw materials, ensuring products arrive on time and in top condition. 

Request a quote today to see how Entourage Freight Solutions can help with your freight movement and other supply chain needs.